Hedgie's Dispatch from NRF PROTECT 2025 | Part 2

By Hedgie Bartol, Avid Industry Advocate

Morning: Risk’s Grand Ensemble

Day 2 began with leaders spotlighting the “team-sport” approach to threat: organized retail crime (ORC), workplace violence, cyberattacks, third-party vulnerabilities—all under one cross-functional umbrella. Tensions around silos? Gone. Today’s mantra: one mission, many defenders.

High-Fidelity Threat Talk

Sessions dove deep: from live case studies on ORC busts to interactive workshops on managing cyber-fraud overlap. Content was granular—think threat actor profiles, live breach tabletop simulations, supplier risk bundling—all with actionable frameworks.

Fusion Center Prime Time

The NRF Fusion Center was humming—real-time intel, simulated incident zones, and inter-agency dialogues kept attendees rooted in tradecraft. Law enforcement, cybersecurity vets, and LP leads dissected scenarios live—then queued for peer Q&A.

Expo Floor: Solution Sprint

Over 200 exhibitors brought their A-game. The expo had rapid-fire demos and strategic reboots:

• Tech showcase: Cross-channel fraud platforms, AI shrink monitors, K 9-backed security systems front and center.

• Vendor corner: Live ORC intel platforms—mapping hotspots and linking lost-case chains.

• Third-party risk booths: Supplier risk scorecards, audit-automation tools, and compliance radars.

Peer Power Breakouts

Table rounds were packed: ORC vs. cyber-fraud, mental-health-in-workplace vs. active-threat strategies. Attendees exchanged war stories—“here’s how we caught internal tech fraud,” “here’s how we de-escalated workplace violence.” It was peer-learning unleashed.

Midday: Awards & Accolades

Mid-evening ceremony spotlighted standout practitioners—leaders who took cross-disciplinary risks, advanced ORC response protocols, and boosted enterprise resilience. Recognition fueled momentum and validated the collective mission.

Day 2 Takeaways (Hedgie Tabulation)



Bottom line: Day 2 of NRF PROTECT 2025 erased silos and sharpened retail risk ops—through hands-on simulations, peer intelligence, and next-gen security tools. If you're not already integrating across cyber ORC violence LP domains, you're already behind.

Check out Hedgie Bartol's NRF PROTECT dispatch from yesterday's edition
 

United Front Against ORC Taking Shape
Trends and Threats in Today’s Domestic Retail Landscape

Retailers, law enforcement, and prosecutors form a united front against organized retail crime, signaling a national shift toward proactive enforcement.

• Organized retail crime (ORC) is escalating: Retail theft losses surged to $42.6 billion by 2023, with $101 billion lost to return fraud, while violence associated with shoplifting has sharply increased.

• Law enforcement and legal systems are evolving: States like Arizona and Kansas are leading the way with model legislation, inter-agency collaboration, and innovative prosecutorial strategies to treat ORC as an organized, multi-jurisdictional crime.

• National response is taking shape: The first-ever National ORC Blitz in May 2025 marks a turning point in collective efforts by over 30 states, signaling that retail theft is no longer being ignored and will be prosecuted aggressively.

During the Covid pandemic years of 2020 through 2023, retail losses from external theft leaped from $32.1 billion to $42.6 billion. Additionally, $101 billion in losses from fraudulent returns were incurred in 2023, and over 90% of retailers reported an increase in violence from shoplifters, as indicated by the 2024 report "The Impact of Retail Theft & Violence" from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and the Loss Prevention Research Council (LPRC). If the statistics continue to follow these upward trends, retailers can expect grim years ahead.

However, there is good news on the horizon. An increased awareness of retail crime, combined with advancements in technology and increased collaboration, means that sellers have more tools at their disposal to combat crime than ever before. securityinfowatch.com

At Least 30 States Have Passed ORC Laws
Oklahoma joins a growing number of states cracking down on shoplifting rings at the urging of retailers

A new law will give the Oklahoma Attorney General powers to prosecute organized retail crime, but a provision that would have made it easier for shoplifters to pick up felony charges was removed from the legislation.

After a push from big retailers and law enforcement, a new Oklahoma law will give the state Attorney General the power to prosecute crime rings that steal retail goods to sell online for profit. But a provision to lower the dollar amount to charge shoplifters with a felony didn’t survive.

Under the new law, which takes effect in November, shoplifters can be prosecuted with organized retail crime if at least two aggravating circumstances are present.

Maximum penalties range from five to eight years in prison, depending on the value of the stolen merchandise. Anyone convicted of organized retail theft must pay restitution to the retailer where the merchandise was stolen.

The Oklahoma Attorney General’s office plans to spend about $1.1 million to hire six staffers to investigate and prosecute retail crime under the new law.

Retail industry groups have advocated for states to enact harsher penalties for organized retail crime in recent years. At least 30 states have passed laws targeting organized retail crime, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. readfrontier.org


Cracking Down on Retail Fraud:
How Ambient IoT Can Secure the Supply Chain

From consumer deception to organized theft, retail fraud is surging. A new generation of IoT sensing technology is stepping in to stop it.

Fraud now scales with modern commerce. Tampering, theft and shrinkage are increasingly prevalent across global retail and e-commerce supply chains, particularly in high-value product categories and in the last mile of delivery. Fraud often feels like the cost of convenience, which defines modern retail.

But today’s losses are staggering. In 2023 alone, global e-commerce fraud losses were projected to exceed $48 billion. Merchants now estimate that roughly 3 percent of their total e-commerce revenue is lost to fraud annually, with a similar share of total orders turning out to be fraudulent. These losses hit margins, damage trust, and slow operations.

Two Types of Fraud — and Why Both Are Hard to Detect

Retail fraud generally falls into two broad categories. Both take advantage of supply chain blind spots:

1. Opportunistic consumer fraud: Some consumers engage in deception — e.g., using products before returning them or falsely claiming an item never arrived. They justify it, seeing it as harmless to large retailers. But the costs add up. In 2024 alone, U.S. retailers lost $103 billion to fraudulent returns and claims, representing 15 percent of the projected $685 billion in total returns. “Wardrobing” — when shoppers buy, use and return items — was reported by 60 percent of retailers surveyed.

2. Organized theft from internal and external threats: At the other end of the spectrum is organized retail crime. Criminal groups target high-value goods in transit, marking boxes or working with insiders. A RILA survey found that two-thirds of retailers experienced increased cargo theft over the past two years, amounting to billions in losses. Insiders have also driven theft rates higher. In the U.K. alone, staff theft now accounts for £3.3 billion annually — 40 percent of all retail theft.

A Shared Challenge: Poor Product Traceability | Ambient IoT: Lighting Up the Dark Corners of the Supply Chain | Next-Gen Light Sensors for Tamper Detection | Rebuilding Trust Across the Retail Supply Chain: mytotalretail.com


Fake Crime Data in D.C.?
DC government is faking crime data, systematically under-reporting violence
Despite triumphant claims of “historic drops” in violent crime, D.C. residents find ourselves kicking off the summer with feelings of uncertainty. As I explore a possible run for local office, I have learned that systematic undercharging is fueling some portion of these so-called declines in violent crime. In short, a manipulation of the crime statistics is causing them not to align with reality, which helps explain why people in Washington don’t feel safe.

When a violent crime is reported as a “felony threat,” rather than “assault with a dangerous weapon,” it is not counted as a violent crime.

Our city leaders must act now to determine whether this is happening, to what extent, and how it impacts not only those within my own Ward 6, but also throughout the district.

On Feb. 20, to great fanfare, the Metropolitan Police Department Public Information Officer released the following statement: “Our initiatives and investments led to a historic 35 percent drop in violent crime in 2024, including a 32 percent drop in homicides and a 39 percent decrease in robberies. These decreases drove crime in Washington, D.C. down to its lowest levels in more than two decades.”

On paper, this seems like fantastic news. But day after day, we are bombarded with reports of shootings, carjackings and robberies. We witness teens running through crowded recreational areas with weapons, and we’re left wondering: Why isn’t the story we are told translating to our lived experiences? thehill.com


ORC Surging in Germany
German Retail Losses Hit New High as Criminal Gangs Target Shops
Germany’s retailers are seeing more stock vanish from shelves as in-store theft, driven in part by organized crime, reaches new heights.

Retail inventory losses in Germany rose to €4.95 billion ($5.7 billion) in 2024, a 3% increase from the previous year and the highest number ever recorded in industry surveys by the Cologne-based EHI Retail Institute. The increase was largely due to a nearly 5% rise in shoplifting, and a growing number of thefts associated with organized criminal groups, which typically steal at least €1,000 in goods per offense. bloomberg.com


ICYMI: How a Walmart Store Cut Shoplifting With One Major Change

Most nabbed in L.A. raids were men with no criminal conviction, picked up off the street
 

CVS Accused of 'Abusing Customer Information'
Louisiana files lawsuits alleging pharmaceutical giant CVS deceived customers in text messages
Louisiana filed several lawsuits accusing pharmaceutical giant CVS of abusing customer information and using its dominant market position to drive up drug costs and unfairly undermine independent pharmacies, the state’s attorney general said Tuesday.

Attorney General Liz Murrill began investigating CVS after the company sent out mass text messages to thousands of residents on June 11 to lobby against legislation that took aim at its business structure. The texts warned that medication costs could go up and all CVS pharmacies in the state would close.

The lawsuits, which were filed Monday in central Louisiana’s St. Landry Parish, seek “injunctive relief, civil penalties and restitution,” Murrill said.

CVS “abused customers’ sensitive information to push a political message,” Republican Gov. Jeff Landry said Tuesday at a press conference.

He noted CVS had lobbied his wife over text via the same messaging chain normally used to notify her about picking up a prescription drug or other healthcare-related matters.

One lawsuit argues that the text message lobbying constituted “unfair or deceptive acts” in violation of state trade law. Two Louisiana-based law firms have filed a separate class action lawsuit against CVS over the text messages. apnews.com


Retailers Continue to Lean Into AI
Five Below Solves AI Strategy With 4 Smart Steps

Five Below tapped AI to sharpen competitive edge, master inventory needs and drive cash flow. Four uncommon steps set the burgeoning retailer apart.

1. Prioritize strategy over scaling. Cutting through all of the pricey consultant-speak and obtuse, idealistic models, strategy clarifies how companies (1) create value for customer and (2) differentiate from competitors. Both parsimonious tenets are measurable, explainable and actionable. Otherwise, “scaling meetings” devolve into operational troubleshooting, blame shifting and ambition dilution and deferral.

2. Protect digital strategists. Five Below partnered with invent.ai, a pioneering AI-decisioning platform that helps retailers grow revenue and margins with actionable sourcing pricing and merchandising insights. Specifically, their proprietary algorithms forecast store and product sales across millions of SKUs and diverse product lines to maximize inventory turns, minimize overstock and, importantly, drive sales.

3. Fix a glaring value chain pain point. Five Below identified inventory management as its vital business constraint. Forecasting errors carry heavy costs — stockouts fuel immeasurable lost sales and frustrated customers, while overstock gobbles precious capital and dents margins. Additionally, performance drag often drives corporate bloat as corporate staff grow to mask inefficiency and solve unforced errors.

4. Mandate accountability with real business metrics. Five Below doesn’t just track AI performance through technical metrics. Their investor relations site touts success indicators that connect sales growth, margin gains and cash flow. The company reports an astoundingly speedy one-year payback on new stores. To continue that fsical success, executives must discern how AI investments can handle expansion. forbes.com


Supply Chains Facing More Pressure
Gartner: How to secure Mideast supply chains from Israel-Iran conflict
Gartner Inc. has identified three critical priorities for chief supply chain officers to implement to protect their Middle East operations.

In response to the ongoing impacts from the Israel-Iran conflict, Gartner advises that chief supply chain officers should assess and mitigate their exposure to new global transportation bottlenecks, prepare for continued supply chain cost volatility, and review their supply chain resilience strategies.

Top factors driving changes to the supply chain network in the past two years included increasing resilience/redundancy as part of risk management strategy (46%) and external geopolitical pressures (26%).

"As the conflict between Israel and Iran oscillates, chief supply chain officers must leverage the resilience they have built in recent years, recognizing that the global significance of this region makes it nearly impossible to avoid adverse impacts, even if only indirect," said David Gonzalez, VP analyst in the Gartner supply chain practice. "This conflict should serve as a catalyst for improving organizations’ supply chain resiliency plans over the long-term." chainstoreage.com


Early Start for Spirit Halloween
Spirit Halloween seeking 50,000 seasonal employees
The seasonal retailer has approximately 50,000 positions available now to support more than 1,500 retail locations expected to open in the United States and Canada in 2025. The figures are roughly on par with last year’s record-setting hiring and location totals.

Spirit Halloween says its employee perks include competitive salaries, flexible scheduling, a premium pay incentive program, and seasonal retention bonuses for returning store managers. All associates also receive a 30% discount on Spirit Halloween purchases. chainstoreage.com


Survey: Six-in-10 consumers planning budget cuts in coming months
More than two-thirds (68%) of Americans are expecting the U.S. economy to turn negative within the next six to 12 months, according to a new survey from Adtaxi. Twenty-one percent are predicting a mild slowdown, 20% predicting a classic recession, and 27% expecting a stagflation, with increased prices and inflation.

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