'Lowest Property Crime Rate Ever' in 2025?
It's Not Just Murder That's Likely At Historic Lows

The US is on track to record the lowest violent crime rate since 1968 and lowest property crime rate ever

Early crime data for 2025 — when considered in context of the nation’s crime trends in 2023 and 2024 — points to new historic lows being reached this year. The available data from 2024 and the first third of of 2025 suggests a strong possibility that the United States will report the lowest murder rate ever recorded, the lowest property rate ever recorded, and the lowest violent crime rate since 1968.

The Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI) launched last September and has since provided monthly assessments of US crime trends. The sample has grown from between 290 and 300 agencies in the first few months to more than 400 in last month’s sample.

First, the RTCI’s most recent sample covers nearly 380 agencies making up more than 95 million people nationwide (though not ever agency reports every crime type). History has shown that a sample of this size is reasonably accurate at predicting the year-end percent change even this early in the year so long as nothing historic like COVID and the summer of 2020 occurs (knocks on wood).

What gives me confidence to publish this analysis in June 2025 is that the margins for the conclusion aren’t particularly tight. The US is on track to record a substantially lower violent crime rate than every year since the moon landing. And the nation’s reported property crime rate should be much lower than any property crime rate ever recorded even if you're conservative in just how much you think it’s falling.

Does that mean that every city is seeing large declines, that there is not room for continued improvement, or that every crime type is at a historic low everywhere? Of course not. But it does provide context for how frequent crime is reported in the United States and hopefully incentivizes a better understanding of why these lows are being reached.

And with all that in mind, it’s definitely plausible — likely even — that the US in 2025 will report the lowest murder and property crime rates ever recorded to go along with the lowest violent crime in more than 55 years. For confirmation of this assessment, however, we will have to wait another 16 months. jasher.substack.com

Criminals Are Coordinating - So Must We
Fighting ORC Takes More Than Cameras — It Takes Collaboration

By the D&D Daily staff

As organized retail crime (ORC) grows more sophisticated, so must our response. No longer confined to shoplifters acting alone, ORC rings operate with coordination, speed and violence — often targeting multiple retailers across jurisdictions. Combatting this level of threat requires more than in-store deterrents. It demands collaboration.

Retailers, law enforcement and lawmakers each hold part of the solution. When those parts work in isolation, ORC networks exploit the gaps. But when they coordinate — sharing intelligence, aligning on prosecution standards and investing in prevention strategies — we see results.

Take regional ORC task forces, which have helped law enforcement agencies connect the dots between thefts across cities and states. Retailers that proactively report incidents, share surveillance and join intelligence-sharing platforms are helping build stronger cases — not just chasing shoplifters, but dismantling the crews behind them.

Meanwhile, state and federal lawmakers are stepping up with tougher penalties, funding for task forces and legislative clarity around what qualifies as organized crime. But that momentum depends on ongoing input from retailers who see the frontlines daily.

The reality is, no one sector can go it alone. Stores can’t arrest. Police can’t prosecute without evidence. Lawmakers can’t legislate in a vacuum. True progress comes when each group plays its role — in sync, not in silos.

As ORC continues to evolve, collaboration isn’t just helpful — it’s non-negotiable. The criminals are coordinating. So must we.


Cargo Theft Reaching 'Crisis Stage'
IMC’S Lemm says cargo theft is getting worse
The rise of cargo theft in the American supply chain has reached a crisis stage that urgently needs tougher federal legislation and more crime-fighting resources, according to Donna Lemm, Chief Strategy Officer, IMC Logistics, based in Collierville, Tennessee.

In an interview with AJOT, Lemm said: “The rapid rise of cargo theft and fraud over the past few years is so real and so prevalent throughout our supply chain, that yesterday we had questions and comments from every aspect of our industry sharing recent experiences. The need for federal enforcement and prosecution was shared and reiterated by AGTC members. What is happening is that strategic theft of high-value goods has grown exponentially over the past couple of years. Statistically, it's hard to zero in on what that real number is because so much of this crime is not reported.”

Currently, Lemm believes federal laws are not tough enough: “The $1.5 M (federal legal) threshold is the cargo value amount stolen needed to prosecute criminals at a federal level, not a state level. The issue, of course, is that this threshold of $1.5M is too high. We need legislation that will move this threshold to $100K or lower, ideally classifying cargo theft as a standalone federal crime if it crosses state lines. The proposed CORCA bill (Combating Organized Retail Crime Act) would allow aggregation of multiple crimes to meet the threshold.”

Lemm added that: “The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act has been introduced in the Senate with a companion bill in the House to crack down on cargo theft at the federal level and to create a central location within the Department of Homeland Security to coordinate local, state, and federal response to organized retail theft … There is also the Household Goods Consumer Protection Act introduced by Senator Deb Fisher (R-Nebraska) with the goal of protecting consumers and giving FMCSA (Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration) authority to levy civil penalties on these fraudulent bad actors attacking our supply chain.” ajot.com


From California to Texas, ORC is Alive & Well
Texas Retail Theft Case Underscores National Scope of Organized Crime
A sweeping retail theft investigation in North Texas has resulted in the recovery of approximately $1 million in stolen merchandise and an additional $636,000 in cash, illustrating that organized retail theft is not a problem unique to California.

The case adds to mounting evidence that retail theft rings are operating across state lines, often involving coordinated criminal efforts and significant financial losses. Law enforcement officials say that dismantling these networks requires sustained cooperation between local agencies, state investigators, and private retailers. davisvanguard.org


Retail theft crackdown: law enforcement agencies and retailers teaming up

Yolo County District Attorney’s Office releases Prop. 36 ‘progress report’
 

Retail’s DEI Retreat:
Backlash, betrayal, and the cost of silence
This Pride Month, many retailers are retreating from DEI commitments, facing backlash from consumers and political scrutiny. What began as pledges to support marginalized communities is now giving way to silence—leaving brands caught between public expectation and political pressure.

Retailers face backlash as DEI commitments waver

Target faced significant consumer backlash after rolling back its DEI efforts, with foot traffic declining for four consecutive months according to Placer.ai data.

This impact isn't merely anecdotal. Nearly one in five US adults have stopped purchasing from brands that changed their DEI approach, with that number rising to 40% among Gen Z consumers, according to a March 2025 survey from Ad Age and The Harris Poll.

Meanwhile, companies that maintained their DEI commitments saw reputation scores rise by an average of 1.5 points in the Axios Harris Poll 100 rankings.

Costco benefits from consistency in values

While Target struggles, Costco has seen increased foot traffic by maintaining its DEI position and rebuffing pressure to follow other retailers in rolling back commitments. This consistency creates what Collins calls "heart loyalty"—the strongest form of consumer attachment that transcends habit or rational decision-making.

Pride Month marketing becomes more muted

About two in five companies plan to reduce Pride-related engagements this year, with none expecting to increase them, according to Gravity Research. About 25% of corporate donors to New York City's Pride celebrations have canceled or reduced contributions. content-naf.emarketer.com

   RELATED: How ditching Pride now could hurt brands later


$10M Walmart Settlement
Walmart agrees to pay $10M to settle FTC wire-transfer allegations

The settlement closes a case the Federal Trade Commission brought in 2022, alleging that the retail giant turned a blind eye to scams and fraud.

Walmart will pay $10 million and take remedial action to settle Federal Trade Commission allegations involving wire transfer scams that took place at its stores, according to an agreement approved by a federal district court in Illinois, closing the door on a case the FTC brought in 2022.

Walmart didn’t immediately return a request for comment beyond a statement issued Friday ahead of the court’s ruling, outlining the agreement with the FTC and noting that it resolves the complaint. The retail giant “neither admits nor denies any of the allegations in the Complaint,” per court documents.

The FTC sued Walmart three years ago, alleging that “Walmart has not prevented consumers, including its own employees, from sending or receiving highly suspicious money transfers that it knew or had reason to believe were related to consumer frauds. In other cases, Walmart has continued to process fraud-induced money transfers while turning a blind eye to suspicious characteristics or other indicators that the transfers were induced by fraud.” retaildive.com


American Tourism Tanking Amid Controversial Policies
US set to lose $12.5 bn in foreign tourism in 2025: industry

The United States is on track to lose some $12.5 billion in revenue from foreign tourists this year, a tourism industry group said Thursday, as the Trump administration has led a crackdown in immigrants.

The study by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) and Oxford Economics found that the United States was the only country set to see a drop in spending from foreign tourists this year. The drop to $181 billion in spending by foreign tourists will put it 22.5 percent from the peak set a decade ago.

The WTTC, made up of leading travel firms, said this "represents a direct blow to the US economy overall, impacting communities, jobs, and businesses from coast to coast". "While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the US government is putting up the 'closed' sign," she said in a statement.

With President Donald Trump leading a cracking down on illegal immigration, making politically charged comments about other nations, and slapping tariffs on foreign goods, there have numerous efforts by consumers in other countries to boycott US products and calls to skip travel to the United States. france24.com


Grocery giant Kroger to close 60 stores in next 18 months
U.S. grocer Kroger is planning to close dozens of stores by the end of next year. The massive Cincinnati-based grocery store chain made the announcement on Friday. It operates thousands of supermarkets and pharmacies across the nation and is planning to close 60 stores in the next 18 months, a first-quarter 2025 earnings report said.

"Unfortunately, today, not all of our stores are delivering the sustainable results we need," Sargent said on Friday. "To position our company for future success, this morning, we announce plans to close approximately 60 stores over the next 18 months." foxbusiness.com


Economy heading toward ‘significant slowdown,’ Conference Board says
The U.S. economy is headed toward a big slump in growth this year, the Conference Board said Friday, flagging a decline in housing permits and two straight months of rising claims for unemployment insurance.

Walmart, Target announce competing Prime Day sales

UK: River Island to shut 33 stores with hundreds of jobs at risk