Mid Year Crime Stats Show COVID-19 Impact &
Well Documented Increase in Violence & In-store Aggressiveness

Fatalities Up 22% Over Mid-Year 2019 - Robberies Up 4% Over 2019
 - ORC Cases Down 26% From 2019

With the 22% increase in retail violent fatalities being the most disturbing and concerning point of all the crime reports.

As the nation deals with the ongoing protests and riots scattered across the country, the retail industry finds itself dealing the most significant increase in fatalities/violence we've ever seen, even with a large part of the industry being shut down in the second quarter. Which makes this number even more concerning and alarming. As one might think these numbers would decrease across the board.

Given the nature of its findings, we purposely re-examined each incident and audited it thoroughly. So after over four years of conducting this research survey, we can absolutely testify to its creditability. And if there is any error at all, it is that we excluded incidents or missed them entirely.

- For the first time ever, more fatalities took place in-store (139/55%) and not in the parking lot (99/39%). And even more alarming given the consistent in-store fatality rate the preceding three years (78 & 79) and the 76 percent increase in number of in-store fatalities over our Mid Year 2019 report (139 vs. 79)
 

Violence and aggressiveness has indeed increased in the stores. A validated hot discussion point and trend throughout the industry over the last two years. With no end in sight as the trend is continuing in July and August.

- Associate and law enforcement/LP/Security fatalities are spiking dramatically, up 94 percent and 133 percent respectively.

- COVID-19 Shutdown drove the increase in fatalities. The increased stress, 50 million unemployed, well documented 55% increase in alcohol sales, the reported increase in opioid use and overdoses, and the 4 percent increase in robberies, all of these factors certainly contributed to the increase in fatalities overall. Coupled with the protests and riots around the country and the disrespect of law enforcement. And what you have is a volatile and actually fragile balance between fear - anger - and rage.

- Most of the other trends continued: With the majority of fatalities always being male (78% to 88%), killed by a gun (89%), killed in the commission of a crime. Houston remained #1 in fatalities five years running, California #1 state 3 out of the last 4 years, and with four of the top five locations for fatalities and robberies being essential retailers, there was no reduction in opportunity.

As a matter of fact, the shutdown simply reduced the available stores the same population group had to do business with. Thereby squeezing more people into fewer locations. Even with the increased online ordering, you still had merchandise, money and people moving and interacting at even more unrestricted and new locations. With the added element of shutdown stress discussed above.

ORC Report

- COVID-19 Drove The 26% decrease in ORC cases, shutdown the malls and closed the apparel and jewelry retailers and the major source of ORC revenue is shutdown as well.

Robbery Report

- We were on track to have a record breaking number of robberies in 2020 with the most ever reported in one quarter in Q1. (Q1's 2020 robberies of 1,573, up 37% since 2016).

- Mid Yr. 2,813 Robberies represents the most incidents ever reported in 5 years of conducting this research. An 11 percent increase over 5 years, 4 percent increase over 2019. However, of special note is that COVID-19 did impact Q2 robbery rates, as it had the fewest reported cases ever in Q2 over 5 years. And it stopped Q1's record breaking robbery numbers from continuing and possibly having made 2020 a record breaking year for robberies.

Over the last six months, the retail industry has been turned upside down along with the rest of society. And what's happening in our cities is impacting and playing out in our stores. Certainly not to the degree as the streets but literally in many cases right outside the doors.

We're seeing COVID-19's impact and we're also seeing the violence inside the stores as evidenced by the huge increase of in-store fatalities and that's concerning to everyone. The issue now is how do we as an industry, as teams, and as individuals deal with it? How do we respond and try to make a difference?

From technology to staffing to training, every retailer and every retail executive has to be on a never ending quest to ensure that everything that can be done is done to keep America's stores safe and secure for our associates and consumers. Because we are all one team. So, let's keep them all safe out there.

Thanks for reading - Hope it helps.

- Gus Downing