Retail Theft and Violence on the Rise:
What the 2025 NRF Report Reveals and How Accountability Can Turn the Tide

By Rhett Asher, SVP Partnership Development, ALTO

Retail theft and violence continue to rise at alarming levels, threatening not only merchandise and profits but also employee safety and community well-being. The National Retail Federation (NRF) and the Loss Prevention Research Council (LPRC)’s latest study, The Impact of Retail Theft & Violence 2025, paints a sobering picture:

• Shoplifting incidents increased 18% year-over-year

• Threats or acts of violence during theft events rose 17%

• Two-thirds (67%) of retailers reported transnational organized retail crime (ORC) involvement

These trends confirm what ALTO teams observe daily in retail environments across the U.S.: Criminals are more organized, violent, and technologically sophisticated than ever before.

Rising Threats and Expanding Criminal Networks

According to NRF and LPRC researchers, ORC is no longer limited to in-store theft. Retailers are now facing phone scams (70%), digital and ecommerce fraud (55%), and cargo and supply chain theft (50%) driven by organized groups.

At the same time, repeat-offender theft increased for more than half of surveyed retailers. The scope of violence is widening as well: nearly three-quarters (73%) of retailers reported that shoplifters are exhibiting higher levels of aggression and violence compared to a year ago.

The consequences extend far beyond shrink. The NRF report highlights that violence-related thefts have forced 91% of retailers to increase employee safety training and 35% to address labor challenges tied to workplace fear and turnover.

Barriers to Prosecution and Accountability

Despite rising crime rates, 64% of retailers reported fewer than half of theft incidents to law enforcement, citing lack of response, low dollar thresholds, and limited prosecutorial engagement as top barriers.

These findings underscore the accountability gap ALTO is designed to close. Without consistent follow-through, from documentation to legal outcome, organized retail theft continues unchecked, emboldening repeat offenders.

How to Turn Data into Action

From my experience across the retail industry, I’ve learned that data is only powerful when it leads to accountability. When retailers, law enforcement, and prosecutors work together, incidents don’t just get recorded, they lead to real outcomes.

At ALTO, our integrated model of field engagement, evidence management, and legal advocacy helps businesses transform information into action by:

• Improving incident documentation and evidence quality to strengthen prosecutorial success

• Coordinating directly with law enforcement task forces and district attorneys to move cases forward

• Leveraging legislative updates, such as Texas SB 1300, which increases penalties for organized theft

• Promoting accountability as a proven deterrent to repeat offenses

This collaborative approach reflects what the NRF emphasizes in its “Next Steps”: the need for multi-level coordination among retailers, policymakers, and community partners to deter crime, restore public confidence, and make stores safer for everyone.

Building Safer Stores and Stronger Communities

Across the country, businesses are investing in cameras, lighting, and in-store deterrence measures to protect their teams and customers. Yet technology alone cannot solve what has become both a social and legal challenge. The most sustainable progress comes when prevention, data, and accountability work hand in hand.

At ALTO, we see the impact of partnership every day. When incidents are accurately documented, shared, and pursued through the right legal channels, repeat offenses decline, employee confidence grows, and communities begin to feel safer.

The reality is clear: retail theft and violence are not store problems. They are community challenges that require collaboration across retailers, law enforcement, and local leaders.

Together with our partners, ALTO is helping turn shared responsibility into lasting change; creating safer stores and stronger communities.
 

Prop 36 Helping the ORC Fight in California?
Bakersfield police report success in combating organized retail theft
The Bakersfield Police Department (BPD) announced significant progress in its efforts to combat organized retail theft (ORT) in the community.

During the reporting period between July 1 and Sept. 30, 2025, 766 assets valued at more than $15,528 were recovered, and 103 ORT arrests were made. Of those arrested, 39 individuals were eligible under Proposition 36, representing 38% of the arrests.

Proposition 36, passed in 2024, allows for felony charges for thefts involving property valued at $950 or less if the individual has two or more prior theft-related convictions. Since its inception in 2023, BPD's ORT unit has partnered with local retail locations to address these crimes, which affect consumers, employees, local communities, business owners, and shareholders, and pose a significant drain on targeted industries and the economy.

BPD Sergeant Chad Garrett highlighted the impact of enhanced partnerships with retailers. "With the assistance of BPD’s Community Relations Unit, we have expanded retailer participation in monthly retail theft meetings," Garrett said. "These enhanced partnerships have had a measurable impact on addressing organized retail crime through strengthened communication and collaboration with store management and loss prevention teams. We have been able to identify offenders more effectively, resulting in an increase in arrests."

Garrett added, "As a direct outcome of these efforts, the number of reported offenses has begun to decline, reflecting both the deterrent effect of our enforcement strategies and the proactive measures implemented by our retail partners."

The ORT investigative unit is dedicated to working with retailers on criminal investigations of retail theft rings to disrupt operations, recover stolen property, and arrest those responsible. The unit is funded by the Public Safety & Vital Services Measure (PSVS), also known as Measure N. In 2023, BPD was awarded a $6.2 million grant from the state to secure equipment and provide training to reduce the rising trend of organized retail theft. bakersfieldnow.com


NY Leaders Tout Crime Declines, Hope to Prevent Troop Deployment
Mamdani, Hochul prep for possibility of troops, funding cuts if Trump moves on NYC
Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani and Gov. Hochul met Thursday to prepare for the possibility President Trump could take punitive actions against New York City after Mamdani is sworn in seven weeks from now.

For months, Trump threatened to cut federal funding for New York and boost ICE’s presence or deploy the National Guard in the city in the event that Mamdani, a democratic socialist, was elected mayor. Trump routinely called Mamdani a “communist” whose left-wing agenda would put New York at risk.

“I’m not going to send a lot of money to New York,” Trump said in mid-October at the White House. “We’re not going to ruin one of our great cities, because we’ll make that great. We will clean up the crime in about 30 days.”

“It took 12 days to do Washington, DC, so New York is bigger, and Chicago, we’ve already made a lot of progress despite fighting from the government. All of these cities, we want to clean them up,” he added.

“Both agreed that New York is safe and that a federal surge would not improve public safety, especially given continued declines in crime and the governor’s investments in subway safety. State officials provided an update on ongoing preparedness efforts should the federal government target New York, and the mayor-elect’s team will formally join these coordinated efforts.”  nydailynews.com


APD Targets Retail Theft: 60+ Charged, Town Square Park Cameras Activated

Podcast: Understanding Crime Data, This West Virginia Morning
 

Supply Chain Security Summit Recap
ISCPO Canada Supply Chain Security Summit a Resounding Success!
November 13, 2025 – The 2025 ISCPO Canada Supply Chain Security Summit concluded with remarkable success on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, at the Peel Regional Police Association Hall in Mississauga, ON. The event brought together industry leaders for a full day of presentations and networking focused on critical issues in supply chain security.

Key Speakers and Insights

Attendees benefited from a stellar lineup of speakers who provided essential insights into the evolving landscape of supply chain risk management:

• Alan Arcand, Chief Economist for the Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CME), delivered the keynote presentation, offering an outlook on The Canadian Supply Chain Economy – Outlook & Tariff Impacts.

• Dan Kerr of Equite Association shared crucial data on Cargo Theft in Canada – Trends, Methods & Stats.

• Attendees gained risk management strategies from Scott Cober & Brad Cox of BFL Canada on Transportation & Cargo Insurance.

• James Kendall from Purolator presented a valuable case study on Coordinated Cargo Thefts – Operational Lessons Learned.

• Heather Fry of Truckers Against Trafficking (TAT) led a vital discussion on Combating Human Trafficking in Transportation.

• The summit concluded with a look into the future as Jeff Houle from Hubble Network (Smartpin) discussed Emerging Next-Gen Tech-IoT Bluetooth to Space (Satellite) for Asset Protection.

Todd Moore, ISCPO Canada Board Director, called the event a success, stating: “The ISCPO Security Summit has been an exceptional platform for professionals to collaborate and share knowledge on the unique security challenges in this vital region. The connections made will be instrumental in strengthening the global supply chain security community.”

Read the full recap here