2026 Security Predictions

Interface Systems Forecasts 2026 Security Trends

Security landscape will be defined by proactive deterrence, human oversight, operational efficiency, and regulatory readiness

St. Louis, MO — December 03, 2025 — Interface Systems, a leading managed service provider delivering remote video monitoring, commercial security systems, business intelligence, and network to multi-location enterprises, today outlined the security and technology trends expected to define retail, restaurant, and commercial business safety in 2026. The company anticipates an increased shift toward proactive, exterior-focused measures, AI-driven analytics for operational efficiency, broader adoption of human oversight for AI, and heightened regulatory standards.

Proactive Deterrence Will Lead Security Strategy

Commercial establishments such as retail and restaurant chains, car washes, automotive service centers, and other consumer-facing businesses are increasingly focused on securing their exteriors through preventive measures that detect and neutralize threats before they escalate. Advanced video analytics will be central to combating loitering, vandalism, and break-ins in real-time. By leveraging AI-driven detection in conjunction with remote video monitoring, businesses can stop crime before it happens and minimize the costs associated with damage and merchandise or equipment loss.

Human Oversight Will Enhance AI-Enabled Security

AI-enabled cameras are now highly accurate in detection and classification, continually improving as they learn from data. However, the most resilient security strategies acknowledge that bad actors are also constantly evolving. Hence, businesses are likely to incorporate Security Operations Center (SOC) services to add a critical “human-in-the-loop.” This hybrid model ensures expert analysts are available to handle exceptions, investigate persistent threats, and provide the oversight needed for a truly robust security posture.

Read all of their predictions here
 

Criminals Cashing In On Return Fraud
Return Fraud Isn’t Just Consumer Abuse — It’s Becoming an ORC Vector

By the D&D Daily staff

While large-scale shoplifting continues to dominate headlines, return fraud has emerged as one of the costliest and least visible forms of retail loss — and one that organized criminal groups increasingly exploit.

Return fraud refers to the intentional misuse of a retailer’s return process to obtain refunds or store credit for merchandise that was stolen, altered, never purchased, or no longer eligible for return. While often dismissed as isolated consumer abuse, industry data shows that fraudulent returns now represent a meaningful share of overall shrink.

Retail industry reporting consistently estimates that roughly one in ten returns is fraudulent, translating into tens of billions of dollars in annual losses for U.S. retailers. These losses are amplified by the growth of e-commerce, omnichannel fulfillment, and buy-online-return-in-store programs, which increase convenience for customers but also create additional opportunities for abuse.

For organized retail crime groups, return fraud offers a lower-risk alternative to traditional theft. Instead of relying solely on resale through fences or online marketplaces, stolen or fraudulently obtained merchandise can be converted directly into cash or store credit through manipulated returns. In many cases, organized groups rotate participants across locations, reuse stolen receipts or order numbers, or target retailers with inconsistent cross-channel verification.

Unlike in-store theft, return fraud often avoids immediate detection. Transactions appear legitimate at the point of return, and losses frequently surface later through elevated return rates, inventory discrepancies, or financial reconciliations. This delayed visibility makes attribution difficult and complicates criminal investigations.

Retailers report that a significant share of return fraud involves items believed to be stolen, and a notable portion is tied to repeat or coordinated activity, rather than one-off abuse. Law enforcement agencies investigating organized retail theft have increasingly identified fraudulent returns as part of broader ORC schemes that include shoplifting, cargo theft, and gift card laundering.

For loss prevention and asset protection teams, the rise of return fraud reinforces a key shift in the ORC landscape: shrink is no longer confined to the sales floor. Addressing this threat requires better integration of return data across channels, clearer escalation tools for frontline associates, and closer collaboration between fraud, LP, and operations teams.

As ORC tactics continue to evolve, return fraud is moving from a policy issue to a strategic crime problem — one that retailers can no longer afford to overlook.


Facial Recognition is Catching Repeat Offenders
Live facial recognition in UK shops triggered record repeat offender alerts in 2025

The live facial recognition crime prevention platform Facewatch sent more than half a million real-time offender alerts to retailers in 2025.

That’s more than double the number issued the previous year, as organised and repeat retail crime continued to escalate across the UK.

The live facial recognition crime prevention platform issued 516,739 alerts to its retail subscriber network in 2025, up from 252,943 alerts in 2024 – an increase of just over 100% year-on-year.

On a daily basis, Facewatch now sends an average of 1,415 alerts a day, compared with 693 per day in 2024, underlining both the rising volume of offending and the growing reliance by retailers on rapid, intelligence-led responses to protect staff and stores.

The alerts are designed to notify retailers in near real time when known prolific and repeat offenders enter shop premises protected by the company’s live facial recognition technology.

In 2025, Facewatch’s system issued alerts with an average response time of just nine seconds, enabling frontline retail staff to take preventative action before offences are committed and to safely prepare for known anti-social or violent offenders.

This average speed of response time includes offender alerts requiring checks by a team of specialist facial analysts, when a live facial recognition match requires human intervention before being sent to the retailer.

Nick Fisher, chief executive of Facewatch, said the figures illustrated the “industrial scale” of retail crime now facing businesses and the increasingly important role of technology in tackling it. talkingretail.com


Theft Drops 23% in San Diego Following Prop 36
ICYMI: Downtown San Diego sees drop in retail theft, one year after Prop 36

Prop 36 is a retail theft and drug possession law that increases penalties for repeat offenders that went into effect last December.

Nearly a year after California voters approved Proposition 36, a retail theft and drug possession law that increases penalties for repeat offenders, San Diego leaders say they’re starting to see noticeable changes downtown.

Proposition 36 changes repeat theft or drug possession from a misdemeanor to a felony on the third offense. Those convicted face up to three years in prison. Voters passed the measure last November, and it went into effect in December.

At a press conference on Thursday, District Attorney Summer Stephan and other city leaders highlighted how the law is being implemented locally. “The law now actually protects these businesses. You can do something about it,” Stephan said.

According to San Diego Police Department data, theft, robbery and property crimes downtown have dropped by 23% compared to last year. In 2024, police recorded roughly 3,500 cases; this year, the number is closer to 2,700. cbs8.com


More Cities See Murder Drop
Columbus homicides hit 16-year low in 2025
Columbus' 2025 homicide count was its lowest in 16 years, continuing a trend of decline following a pandemic-era peak. Public perception of violent crime doesn't always match broader data. Columbus' statistics mirror a nationwide trend, with local violent crime as a whole also dropping.

The U.S. appears to have had its largest one-year drop in murders ever recorded, according to a preliminary analysis by crime stats expert Jeff Asher. The country's mass killings also fell in 2025, reaching their lowest level since 2006, and other major crimes are also down.

President Trump has prioritized cracking down on violent crime in his second term, though there is no clear evidence linking his policies to the broader decline, which started in 2021. axios.com


MPD responds to DC Council probe on crime data manipulation

Maine crime rate falls for fourth straight year, new data shows

New data shows how crime is trending in Cedar Rapids, IA
 

NRF Board of Directors Adds Four New Members
NRF Foundation Adds Four New Members to Board of Directors
WASHINGTON, January 10, 2026 – The NRF Foundation today announced the addition of four new members to its board of directors. The new members were elected during the organization’s annual winter board meeting, held at NRF 2026: Retail’s Big Show in New York City.

“We are honored to welcome an incredibly distinguished and diverse group of individuals to the NRF Foundation Board of Directors,” NRF Foundation Executive Director and NRF Senior Vice President Adam Lukoskie said. “By offering their volunteer leadership, expertise and guidance, they empower the NRF Foundation to expand our retail training and scholarship programs and open retail career pathways for tens of thousands of people annually.”

New members elected to the board include:

• Abbey Silberman Fagin, Chief Development Officer, Goodwill Industries International

• Alison Furman, Partner, PwC Consumer Markets Industry Leader, PwC

• Reginald B. Henderson, Senior Vice President, External Affairs, Lowe's Companies Inc.

• Joshua Secrest, Head of Frontline Marketing at Paradox, a Workday Company

Chaired under the leadership of Goodwill Industries President and CEO Steven Preston, the NRF Foundation Board of Directors is comprised of executives who believe in the power of connecting people to retail opportunities in communities nationwide through NRF Foundation career resources, training and scholarships. nrf.com


More Cities Crackdown on Abandoned Shopping Carts
New Phoenix Shopping Cart Ordinance Requires Retailer Certification by Jan. 15
By Jan. 15, retailers that provide shopping carts to their customers are required to complete an annual shopping cart certification to comply with the City of Phoenix’s new shopping cart ordinance. The new ordinance is designed to reduce the number of abandoned shopping carts in neighborhoods, along rights-of-way, sidewalks, and public spaces to help reduce blight and public safety hazards.

Under the new ordinance, a completed shopping cart certification confirms that large retailers with shopping carts have:

• Locking wheel systems in place for cart management and retrieval.

• Or, have implemented an effective shopping cart management plan that prevents carts from leaving the store property, as well as a method to ensure timely retrieval, which must include a contract for cart retrieval services.

All retailers with shopping carts will need to provide detailed information to complete the certification, such as number of carts they own, a point of contact, and billing information.

Failure to comply with the certification requirement and other ordinance provisions by Jan. 15 may result in enforcement actions.

Retailers can find full details about Phoenix’s new shopping cart ordinance and complete the annual certification online at phoenix.gov/shoppingcarts. Residents can report abandoned shopping carts by calling 602-534-4444, by emailing shopping.carts.nsd@phoenix.gov or reporting online at myPHX311  phoenix.gov


The Long-Term Impact of Tariffs
Tariffs will shape consumer behavior long after policy shifts fade
Even if tariffs ease, their effects on consumer behavior will linger into 2026, redefining how consumers evaluate value, loyalty, and where they spend.

Across industries, elevated prices will be the most immediate and persistent consequence.

“Pricing [will have the biggest impact] as tariffs cause prices to remain high in certain categories,” said Matt Grandchamp, vice president of sales at NowThis.

As price pressure increases, consumers are becoming more selective, less impulsive, and more demanding of clear value.

• “An inflation psychology will reshape consumer behavior long after the macro pressure eases,” said Adam Brotman, co-CEO of Forum3. “Even mild price increases will push value-conscious shoppers toward private label, refurbished goods, and AI-powered deal-hunting tools.”

• Retailers must respond by providing more financing options and aggressive loyalty-driven promotions. emarketer.com

Big Box Amazon Store Coming
Amazon plans first big-box grocery store near Chicago
Amazon plans to open their first box store near Chicago. Business Insider reported Orland Park, Illinois officials voted to approve the mega store on Tuesday.

According to the city, the plan will redevelop approximately 35 acres with a building more than 225,000 square feet. The store will offer groceries, prepared foods and other services.

"We like to explain it as: 'It's the best that Amazon has to offer under Whole Foods, Fresh and their online offerings,'" Amazon's attorney, Katie Jahnke Dale said. "So what does that look like? It's a grocery store. But it's purpose-built for what we're seeing: retail customers demand today to provide a very safer experience for customers. As well as a more pleasant customer experience."

At a village meeting, Plan Commissioner John Paul told residents allowing Amazon to build is good for the community. yahoo.com


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