The Post COVID-19 “New Normal” Future of Retail – Webinar
By Tony D'Onofrio, Global
Exclusive to D&D, you can now download this review of the latest global economic
and retail insights on the impact of COVID-19 and how we will emerge in the “new
webinar was sponsored by FACEFIRST and presented by the Loss
As the data is changing continuously,
the D&D version of this presentation has
NEW UPDATED global regional retail forecasts, North America retail
sectors projected growth rates, COVID-19 USA transfer of wealth, and latest USA
store reopening latest information.
Euromonitor projects that global GDP will shrink 3% in 2020, after rising 3.1%
in 2019. USA to be down 5.8%. Forrester projects a very robust 7.2% GDP growth
for North America in 2021.
Growth has been accelerated double digits for grocery, drug, supercenters, and
mass merchandisers in 2020. Double digit declines will be registered in
department stores, specialty soft goods, and restaurants.
The IHL Group projects that nearly 300,000 stores will close in 2020 with the
73% coming from one store companies. UBS projects that 100,000 stores will close
in the next five years. E-commerce is not taking over retail and physical stores
will continue to be a critical component of the industry.
It’s useful to look at history to understand how we recovered from previous
crises. China, which was the first country to exit COVID-19, has already started
their retail recovery.
Retail recovery in USA will be uneven with apparel and department stores not
reaching 2019 levels until 2023. Check out the retail recovery curves in the
COVID-19 has become a brutal accelerator of digital transformation trends that
were already underway. We are all digital natives now. Post pandemic, however,
we will still go to stores.
Consumers habits are changing because of COVID-19.
Shoppers feels safest in grocery and drug stores. The near term in-store “new
normal” is surreal. Right now, consumer wants to smell bleach when they walk
into stores and not perfume.
As demonstrated by the latest D&D data, crime is rising during the COVID-19
pandemic. In Q1 robberies are up 37% on 2016 and 14% on Q1/2019.
Retailer technology priorities have changed because of COVID-19. Frictionless
commerce is now taking a much higher priority. Computer vision which got its
start in Loss Prevention will play a much more important role in the evolution
of retail. By 2021, one billion CCTV cameras will be installed around the world.
The COVID-19 pandemic will increase the importance
of loss prevention. Appropriately balancing friction to stop / minimize theft
and meeting the shopping needs of an increasingly digitally empowered consumer
will be the key battle in the accelerated arrival of the store of the future.
You can watch and hear the audio of this webinar at this link