The Post COVID-19 “New Normal” Future of Retail – Webinar

By Tony D'Onofrio, Global Retail Influencer

Exclusive to D&D, you can now download this review of the latest global economic and retail insights on the impact of COVID-19 and how we will emerge in the “new normal”. This webinar was sponsored by FACEFIRST and presented by the Loss Prevention Foundation.

As the data is changing continuously, the D&D version of this presentation has NEW UPDATED global regional retail forecasts, North America retail sectors projected growth rates, COVID-19 USA transfer of wealth, and latest USA store reopening latest information.

Euromonitor projects that global GDP will shrink 3% in 2020, after rising 3.1% in 2019. USA to be down 5.8%. Forrester projects a very robust 7.2% GDP growth for North America in 2021.

Growth has been accelerated double digits for grocery, drug, supercenters, and mass merchandisers in 2020. Double digit declines will be registered in department stores, specialty soft goods, and restaurants.

The IHL Group projects that nearly 300,000 stores will close in 2020 with the 73% coming from one store companies. UBS projects that 100,000 stores will close in the next five years. E-commerce is not taking over retail and physical stores will continue to be a critical component of the industry.

It’s useful to look at history to understand how we recovered from previous crises. China, which was the first country to exit COVID-19, has already started their retail recovery.

Retail recovery in USA will be uneven with apparel and department stores not reaching 2019 levels until 2023. Check out the retail recovery curves in the presentation.

COVID-19 has become a brutal accelerator of digital transformation trends that were already underway. We are all digital natives now. Post pandemic, however, we will still go to stores.

Consumers habits are changing because of COVID-19. Shoppers feels safest in grocery and drug stores. The near term in-store “new normal” is surreal. Right now, consumer wants to smell bleach when they walk into stores and not perfume.

As demonstrated by the latest D&D data, crime is rising during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Q1 robberies are up 37% on 2016 and 14% on Q1/2019.

Retailer technology priorities have changed because of COVID-19. Frictionless commerce is now taking a much higher priority. Computer vision which got its start in Loss Prevention will play a much more important role in the evolution of retail. By 2021, one billion CCTV cameras will be installed around the world.

The COVID-19 pandemic will increase the importance of loss prevention. Appropriately balancing friction to stop / minimize theft and meeting the shopping needs of an increasingly digitally empowered consumer will be the key battle in the accelerated arrival of the store of the future.

You can watch and hear the audio of this webinar at this link