Retailers Look Beyond Traditional Shrink
Why retailers are moving beyond shrink to measure total retail loss

At NRF PROTECT 2026, loss prevention leaders discussed how total retail loss helps retailers identify and address risks before they affect profitability

Profit erosion no longer solely sits on a shelf in a retail store. Profit loss shows up in ecommerce fraud and lost sales, supply chain theft and discrepancies, across operational breakdowns and broader elements of enterprise risk. As retail organizations have evolved into blended channels and converging environments, a shrink percentage focusing on physical store loss is a limited indicator of total loss. Retailers are increasingly using total retail loss frameworks to measure these interconnected forms of risk across the enterprise.

Why shrink is no longer enough

At NRF PROTECT 2026, retail leaders and industry experts across various educational sessions discussed the value of total retail loss — a framework that measures loss across retail operations, including theft, fraud, inventory inaccuracies, supply chain disruptions and other operational risks that affect profitability.

A traditional shrink metric still has value, but against today’s retail environment it is increasingly limited. Shrink calculations differ from company to company. Certain areas of loss outside of retail stores may not be calculated. Even sales volume can result in an inaccurate accounting for loss.

Shrink is a lagging indicator — useful for describing what happened, but not ideal to determine where losses are building, where controls are weak or preventing loss before it reaches the profit and loss statement.

A broader view of retail risk

Total retail loss models shift the focus and benefits functions across the entire retail business. It can surface theft patterns, inventory inaccuracies and operational compliance in retail stores. It can connect sales and return thefts and anomalies with transactions occurring between stores and ecommerce activities.

TRL metrics can identify supply chain issues across multiple distribution points, helping to identify and determine issues that may rest with third-party logistics, last-mile delivery or within internal distribution channels. Total retail loss provides a broader view of loss and supports strategic decision-making to curtail future loss.

Connecting loss to business performance

Suni Shamapande, principal at PricewaterhouseCoopers, spoke of the need to change the narrative around loss as a panelist on a session on transforming LP/AP to meet today’s retail complexity. “C-suite conversations are driven by metrics such as P&L impact, margin improvement and operational efficiency,” he said. “Total retail loss is a stronger platform for asset protection to speak in those terms and demonstrate how loss insights shape enterprise priorities.”  nrf.com


Shoplifting Declines, But Retail Safety Concerns Evolve
The Retail Safety Story Isn’t as Simple as “Getting Worse” — Here’s What the Data Actually Shows

The newest industry data shows shoplifting declining even as fraud and worker safety concerns evolve

Walk into almost any retail store today and something has quietly shifted. Merchandise sits behind locked cases, staffing feels thinner, and there’s a tension in the air that wasn’t there a few years ago. Retail workers feel it too — more than 40% say they’re considering leaving their jobs within the next year specifically because of safety concerns, according to research from the Loss Prevention Research Council, a University of Florida-affiliated group, and security company Verkada.

But the industry’s own numbers tell a more complicated story than a straight line toward crisis.

In October 2025, the National Retail Federation reported that shoplifting incidents had jumped 18% in 2024 compared with 2023, with threats or acts of violence during those incidents up 17% over the same period. That report, drawing on 70 companies representing $1.3 trillion in sales, painted a picture of an industry losing ground.

Then, on July 30, 2026 — in a report that got far less attention than the alarming 2025 numbers — the NRF released updated figures covering all of 2025. Shoplifting incidents were actually down 12.4% compared with 2024. Retail merchandise theft fell 8.1%

For the people working the floor, the distinction between “shoplifting is down” and “the job feels safe” doesn’t necessarily hold. Violence and aggression tied to theft — not just its raw frequency — is what workers describe as the harder problem. That’s borne out in organizing efforts far removed from any security vendor’s marketing: New York passed the Retail Worker Safety Act after the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union brought workers to testify about being followed, harassed, and touched by customers on the job. The law, signed by Gov. Kathy Hochul, now requires retail employers with 10 or more workers to adopt a violence-prevention plan and provide annual de-escalation and active-shooter training, with employers above 500 workers statewide required to install panic buttons.

At the federal level, the retail industry’s preferred policy fix — the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, aimed at improving coordination between local, state, and federal law enforcement on cross-jurisdictional theft rings — has passed the U.S. House and is awaiting Senate action, with the NRF actively lobbying for its passage. southernmarylandchronicle.com


Better Supply Chain Data Fights Theft
Solving organized retail theft starts with better supply chain data integrity
Retail theft is a problem that has grown far beyond store security, as the retail supply chain is increasingly an appealing target for organized crime. According to CargoNet, there were 767 supply chain crime events in Q1 2026 alone, representing more than $131.58 million in estimated losses. The report also notes that thieves are specifically targeting more items that are less bulky and easier to resell at scale, such as beauty and food and beverage products.

Policymakers have also taken notice of the rising theft and fraud in the supply chain. The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (CORCA) bill aims to establish an Organized Retail and Supply Chain Crime Coordination Center meant to more easily align law enforcement efforts at federal, state, local, and private-sector levels.

Reducing organized retail theft will require a multifaceted, industry-wide approach, but many of those facets rely on building a stronger foundation of supply chain data integrity. By tracking serialized products, retailers have more information to feed investigations, prosecute bad actors, and recover products so they can be returned to the rightful owners.

Loss prevention teams are often the first to see the downstream effects of theft, but many underlying security gaps occur throughout the supply chain, in areas outside their purview. Thefts can occur at virtually any point: during pickups, at handoffs between partners, inside warehouses, when stores receive shipments, and through deceptive returns. Digital tools and AI are making it easier than ever for crime syndicates and individual bad actors alike to forge credentials and impersonate legitimate carriers or brokers.

The broad impact on the supply chain creates inventory loss, sales losses, brand erosion, counterfeiting risks, and more. These issues interfere with retailers’ ability to respond to disruptions and address customer expectations around authenticity.

RFID is an important capability within a broader supply chain security strategy. It can facilitate more collaborative security efforts between partners by capturing movement data at key checkpoints without slowing or stopping operations. supplychaindive.com


New Ohio Bill to Fight Retail Theft
HB 615 would create new crime category for mob shoplifting
Legislation introduced by Rep. Josh Williams, HB 615 to address retail theft, seeks to establish a new classification of criminal shoplifting activity -- one that covers acts committed by a group of individuals.

I applaud this progressive step, to elevate the penalties for a form of criminal mob rule that is designed to quickly overwhelm the existing capabilities of local police control.

Similar legislation is needed for similarly organized criminal activities like gang violence, street and mall mass takeovers, and dirt bike traffic interference. cleveland.com


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