The Changing Retail Landscape - 2020 Predictions

More than 9,300 stores closed in 2019
59% increase over 2018
2019 was another bruising year for many American retailers, despite healthy consumers and a strong economy. This year, US retailers announced 9,302 store closings, a 59% jump from 2018 and the highest number since Coresight Research began tracking the data in 2012. Bankruptcies in the retail sector intensified this year and many struggling chains cut stores. That led to a spike in closings. cnn.com

5 Bold Retail Predictions For 2020, For Walmart, Amazon And More
Predicting the future is a fool’s pursuit, it’s been said, but sometimes the need to do so overwhelms any amount of common sense or logic. That’s even more the case at the end of the year, when forecasting what’s likely to happen in the new year seems to be epidemic. Here are the five big news stories that will dominate the retail headlines over the next 12 months. You read them here first.

1. Walmart’s E-Commerce Growth Continues - But At Slower Pace
2. Amazon Buys A Major Grocery Chain
3. With Richard Baker Gone, HBC Twists And Turns In The North American Retail Currents
4. Bed Bath & Beyond Is The Most Changed Retailer Of The Year
5. Sears/Kmart Are Finally Put Out Of Their - And Our - Misery forbes.com

Retailers open and trade NYC stores despite tough conditions
For retail, the “new normal” has become constant reinvention for brands and business owners alike.

“What we are witnessing is a complete change and total transformation of the way people buy and consume,” says Steven Cornwell of Woods Bagot, who worked on the South Street Seaport’s redevelopment for many years. “There is a transformation of consumption and the way people live and the expectation of experiences.”

In the past, when retail stores were desirable, buildings and retail condominiums were bought and resold. “There was a lot of competition, and values were bid up, and projections that were made were unrealistic,” says Michael Cohen of Colliers International. “We now have a disconnect between ‘high street’ retail and what tenants will actually pay, so there’s an oversupply.”

Explains Brad Mendelson of Colliers, “The problem now is that rents are too high, and tenants are tired of losing money.” Along Fifth Avenue, for instance, few deals were made north of 49th Street and several major stores — like those once home to Henri Bendel and Ralph Lauren — are dark. nypost.com

Retail to keep growing in 2020 as investments pay off, Moody's says
Analysts with Moody's anticipate a stable retail industry in 2020 as investments in e-commerce and operations "bear fruit," and consumers sentiment and employment remain strong. The ratings firm projects industry-wide operating income growth of 3% to 4%, according to an emailed report.

The analysts also expect e-commerce growth to outpace the rest of retail, with online retail sales reaching 25% of the total pie in the next four to five years.

But trade tensions with China, risk of a recession and high levels of debt for many retailers remain risks for the industry, the analysts said. retaildive.com

Retailers edging toward the brink
There are dozens of retailers whose profits might still be positive, but they're declining. Top-line and comp sales are in decline as well as shoppers seek cheaper or more convenient alternatives, or pull back spending on their category entirely. A string of good quarters could buffer their financial position, and a run of bad quarters could put them in a more vulnerable spot.​

Looking at Moody's ratings data, there are roughly three dozen retailers rated between Ba1 and B3, speculative grades indicating substantial or high credit risk that fall above distressed C-level ratings. retaildive.com

Poor inventory management weighs down the apparel industry
Tariffs and changing tastes may be challenges, but they don't explain the industry's inventory management flaws. So far this year, 11 of the 17 major retail bankruptcies were filed by companies that mostly sell apparel, footwear or accessories and the majority of those are dominated by private label products. Though poor inventory management alone is unlikely to drive a retailer to such dire straits, good inventory hygiene is gaining importance in the minds of analysts and investors. supplychaindive.com

The Rise of the Outsider CEO
As the chief-executive exit door swings faster,
more companies look externally for the next boss

The boss’s seat has gotten hotter in 2019. Chief-executive departures took place at a rate of about 114 a month, a 25% increase over the typical yearly rate for the last decade, according to employment consultant Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Leaders from all walks of business - WeWork’s parent, SoulCycle, Nike Inc. and McDonald’s Corp. - resigned, announced retirements or were shown the door.

An increasing number of companies pick outsiders to run the show these days. Sometimes those outsiders are serving on the board; sometimes they are running another company; sometimes they are rising stars at a competitor.

“If your business model is working well and is just about doing things faster, more cost-effectively, better, smarter, then your internal talent bench is the lowest-risk path,” said Betsy Atkins, a director at Wynn Resorts Ltd, Volvo AB and SL Green Realty. “When the business model is shifting and the internal skills may not be able to keep up with the rate of innovation and change, I think that’s when companies look for an outside CEO.” And, Ms. Atkins said, there’s no doubt we are in an era of “extraordinary change in core business models.” wsj.com

Private-equity buyouts, economic downturn, and e-commerce:
How the 2010s became the defining decade of the retail apocalypse

What can we learn from the decade’s top-performing retail stocks?

The rise of Amazon has led to a split between thriving and struggling malls
 

Indianapolis, IN: Two Nordstrom Rack customers sue retailer after security guard 'humiliated, unlawfully detained' them
Two Nordstrom Rack customers have taken legal action against the retailer after a November incident involving a security guard. One of the attorneys who helped file the lawsuit says the incident at the upscale store never should have happened.

Aaron Blackwell and best friend Durell Cunningham say they went shopping at the East 82nd Street retail store in November. Former constable Daryl Jones was working security. The men said they noticed Jones looking at their license plate in the parking lot. Out of concern and instead of driving away, they said they circled the parking lot and pulled up to the front door on purpose. Cunningham was in the drivers seat. Blackwell recorded from the front passenger seat. The men say a confrontation ensued "for no reason."

In the video posted on social media and viewed by thousands, Jones is seen asking the men for identification. "I'm stopping you because you're suspicious," Jones said.

At the time of the incident, Jones was employed as a Lawrence Township Small Claims Court constable. Eyewitness News confirmed that Jones was terminated by the elected constable immediately after the cell phone video went viral.

The lawsuit alleges Jones harassed, publicly humiliated, embarrassed and unlawfully detained the plaintiffs. It seeks punitive damages from Nordstrom Rack and from On-Target Security, Jones' employer at the time of the incident. wthr.com

Christmas holiday means increased risk of cargo theft
With the number of cargo theft incidents and loss values on the rise ahead of the holiday shopping season, one industry group is encouraging the transportation industry to brace for an expected uptick in thefts and loss values. In winter holidays between 2014 and 2018, the SensiGuard Supply Chain Intelligence Center recorded just under two thefts per day and an average loss value of $207,001. That’s a 20% increase over the rest of the year, the company said in a bulletin to industry professionals issued this week.

“The winter holiday shipping season has historically been one of the most dangerous times for cargo theft,” the bulletin states. “This year, both Christmas Day and New Year’s Day occur on a Wednesday, leaving more opportunity for shipments to be left unattended or parked in unsecured locations for extended periods of time.” landline.media

Supply Chain Optimization: How to Alleviate Common Pain Points
Every supply chain has its own set of pain points. Although varied by industry and company size, these pain points often stem from inefficiencies and entropy, and are manifested as a result of either lack of attention or lack of process, both of which affect your supply chain optimization. When left to fester, these pain points can create permanent damage within a supply chain. Working to identify and immediately triage these pain points should be a top priority for all companies. This article outlines a 3-step process to help handle these common pain points and get to supply chain optimization: multichannelmerchant.com

Bethesda, MD: Airsoft Shooting Range in Montgomery Mall to Close After One Month - Following Customer Concerns
Aim Point, an airsoft shooting range that opened in Westfield Montgomery Mall in Bethesda less than a month ago, will close in January. Aim Point is located outside of the food court area. According to an Aim Point employee, the decision to close the organization was made at the corporate level of Westfield Montgomery Mall. The employee said several customers were concerned about having a shooting range in the mall. mymcmedia.org

Retail workers tell us about their worst Christmas experiences
‘Snitches get stitches.’ That’s what a customer told me when I was a supermarket assistant reporting a theft. Such is the ludicrousness of being a retail worker. But it’s character building, we guess? Some employees of Britain and America’s leading retailers shared stories about just how chaotic the season can truly be: metro.co.uk

Gwyneth Paltrow to speak at NRF 2020 Vision: Retail’s Big Show

Walmart backs adoption of new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement

Chipotle tests new digital-friendly store design


Quarterly Results
Rite Aid Q3 comp's down 0.1% (pharmacy sales up 0.1%, front-end sales down 0.5%), revenue up 0.2%

Retail & Hospitality ISAC and The Media Trust Produce Joint Benchmarking Study on Third-Party Risks to Consumer-Facing Websites
The Retail & Hospitality Information Sharing and Analysis Center (RH-ISAC) and The Media Trust are pleased to announce that they have entered into a partnership to benchmark and improve eCommerce security and efficiency. The collaboration combines the RH-ISAC vision to transform the way companies mature capabilities and collaborate to reduce the risk of cybercrime and The Media Trust’s expertise in digital security to raise awareness of unknown third-party vendors operating in digital environments. rhisac.org

Protecting Your Global Workforce With Modern Threat Monitoring Systems
Safety and security professionals struggle to protect their employees from threats for three primary reasons.

First, today’s workforce is more dispersed than ever before. About 70 percent of people work remotely at least once per week. And in the United States alone, about 1.3 million business trips occur each day. With employees constantly on the move and traveling about the globe, it’s nearly impossible to keep up with each employee’s proximity to every emergent threat.

Second, a more global economy and better collaboration tools make it easier to operate offices away from your primary headquarters. Each office represents a unique monitoring challenge, marked by potentially different time zones, weather patterns, political climates, etc. Every location under supervision requires constant review and analysis to understand what hazards face the local employees.

Third, we live in a world saturated with information. Local news channels, government entities, law enforcement agencies, global weather sources and even social networks provide source material to help identify threats to your employees. The volume of data is overwhelming.

To address these challenges, companies are turning to modern threat monitoring systems to watch for threats and easily warn at-risk employees. Here are a few key components threat monitoring systems must have to succeed in today’s global economy:

● Comprehensive Threat Content
● Real-Time Impact Assessments
● Automated Threat Warnings
● Integrated Emergency Communication

Read more about them here: securitymagazine.com

Research: Security Professionals Skeptical About Cybersecurity Vendor Claims
New research reveals a high level of skepticism due to vague product descriptions, ambiguous statistics, limited ability to measure product effectiveness, and a general lack of follow-through by the vendors.

The study by Valimail included respondents who represent large enterprises with big security budgets. The report finds that 55% of respondents spend more than $100,000 on each new cybersecurity tool or solution. While spending is high, so is dissatisfaction with vendors who simply don’t guarantee specific results or fail to provide adequate, data-driven descriptions of the benefits their products offer. And it all starts with the sales pitch, the study says: 53% of respondents say most or all vendors rely on unclear, opaque, and ambiguous data. Vendors often fail to articulate the value of their products and their claims are difficult to verify. They also fail to keep their promises nearly half the time and rarely make check-in calls after closing sales. securitymagazine.com

Brooklyn teen hacked into 75 phones and stole $1M in cryptocurrency: authorities
An alleged teen crook stole the identities of 75 people and swiped $1 million in cryptocurrency — all from the comfort of his Brooklyn apartment, authorities said.

Yousef Selassie, 19, used a sophisticated SIM-swapping scheme to take over the phones of people in 20 different states between Jan. 20 and May 19, 2019, according to the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office.

He allegedly transferred his victims’ phone numbers to his own iPhones, enabling him to reset their passwords and gain access to their Gmail, cryptocurrency and other accounts. Meanwhile, his victims’ phones would suddenly go offline.

The stolen $1 million came from just two victims, authorities said. Selassie was arrested Dec. 5 in Corona, California, and extradited to New York. nypost.com

British man, member of 'The Dark Overlord' hacking group, extradited to the US
A British man was extradited to the US this week to face charges of hacking and extorting US companies while part of an infamous hacking group known as The Dark Overlord (TDO). The alleged TDO member, named Nathan Francis Wyatt, 39, was arraigned in a Saint Louis court today, where he pleaded not guilty.

According to court documents, US authorities believe Wyatt was one of the many TDO members who, since 2016, have been hacking US companies, stealing their data, and asking for huge ransoms.

If victims didn't pay, the group would put the data up for sale on hacking forums, leak it on the public internet, or tip journalists about the breach in order to generate negative press coverage for the hacked company. zdnet.com

Wendy’s announces layoffs in corporate IT department

Biometric point-of-sale payments growth led by India, China

Microsoft issues an advisory for a SharePoint vulnerability

Cannabis: The Past, Present, and
Predictions for the Future
FUTURE: Part Three of a Three-Part Series

By Tony Gallo, Managing Partner & Katharine Baxter, Lead Technical Writer for Sapphire Risk Advisory Group

The 2020 election may act as a catalyst for legalization with the possible beginning of a new administration. All but one Democratic candidate supports legalization- Joe Biden.

Biden, who has a history of supporting tough penalties, has expressed his belief that marijuana may act as a “gateway drug,” leading to the use of stronger narcotics. Although he has proposed decriminalization, expungement of past convictions, and downgrading cannabis to a schedule II drug, full legalization may not be something he would be behind.

Despite the politics of taking a pro-cannabis stance, an increasing number of states are looking to 2020 for legalization, including Illinois and Maine which have already passed legislation. States like Arizona, New Jersey, and many more are currently in the process of full legalization with others, like Mississippi, making progress toward medicinal use.

But, while states continue to legalize, an illicit cannabis market still remains active. Licensed cannabis businesses must remain vigilant in securing their locations and proactively protecting their employees, customers, and products. There continues to be an increasing demand by the state to better safeguard these legitimate businesses without looking like a prison with high fences and armed guards. Cannabis businesses, especially dispensaries, want to be seen as welcoming and inviting retailers, without sacrificing the quality of security.
​
While cannabis may not be available in every state yet, it’s likely that it will have a legal presence nationwide, whether medicinal or recreational, within the next few years- and the cannabis security industry will only expand.

Read Part 1 & 2 here

Update: Eau Claire, WI: Minneapolis woman sentenced after Ulta Beauty reports $35,000 of stolen items
Eau Claire County Court records show 32-year-old Miranda Roberts has been sentenced to four years of probation after she plead no contest to theft- financial gain and felony retail theft-intentionally taking All other charges were dismissed and read in. The criminal complaint says Eau Claire Police were dispatched to Ulta Beauty at Oakwood Mall on reports of a female stealing items inside the store. On Nov. 12, officers made contact with Roberts who gave law enforcement a false name. Store staff found the bag Roberts had dropped when she saw police, inside was $250 worth of items. Store workers told officials they had received a company-wide email warning them of Miranda Roberts, who had been stealing from Ulta Beauty stores in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The complaint says on Nov. 12, $221 of product was stolen, on Nov. 9, $3,379 of product was stolen and on Nov. 5, $1,716 of product was stolen from the Eau Claire store. Ulta Beauty told staff they “could attribute $35,000 worth of stolen merchandise to Roberts”. weau.com

Dunwoody, GA: Police arrest 27 during Perimeter Mall shoplifting crackdown
Dunwoody Police say they arrested 27 people, including two juveniles, and recovered more than $8,200 in stolen merchandise during a two-day shoplifting crackdown at Perimeter Mall. Police worked with store associates on Dec. 10 and 12 using video cameras and undercover investigators to identify and arrest the suspects as part of a joint operation with the Georgia Retailers Organized Retail Crime Alliance, said police spokesperson Sgt. Robert Parsons. A similar operation in April resulted in 24 arrests. reporternewspapers.net

Auburn, CA: Man Accused Of Stealing $1,100 In Tools From Auburn Home Depot Caught When Car Wouldn’t Start
On December 9, 33-year old Michael Guillermo Mendoza walked into the hardware store, filled his cart with more than $1,100 worth of DeWalt and Milwaukee power tools and ran out, according to a Placer County Sheriff’s Office statement. sacramento.cbslocal.com