NRF Pulls Back on Annual Shrink Report
'A broad study about retail shrink is no longer sufficient for capturing the key challenges and needs of the industry.'

After more than 3 decades, NRF won’t publish its annual shrink report this year

The National Retail Federation’s surveys on inventory lost to crime, errors and more have provided statistics on an issue in focus for retailers.

After conducting annual research on shrink for more than three decades, the National Retail Federation won’t release a report on the issue this year.

“Over the last several years, as the nature of retail loss has evolved, it has become clear that a broad study about retail shrink is no longer sufficient for capturing the key challenges and needs of the industry,” Mary McGinty, NRF vice president of communications and public affairs, said by email. “We will be releasing a new report later this year that examines the landscape of retail theft and violence, which are key challenges for the industry.”

The decision came out of NRF’s ongoing practice of reevaluating “the methods and tools we use for capturing key trends that impact businesses and consumers to ensure that we are providing the most accurate and actionable information possible,” she said. “At times, this means that we make necessary changes to long-standing studies or benchmarks in order to ensure that they reflect the needs and drivers of the modern retail industry.”

Shrink has been in particular focus in recent years, however, with retailers including Target, Five Below, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Walgreens calling out the problem in earnings reports, though early this year some also reported improvements. The NRF has long found a surprising consistency with 2022’s levels of shrink and theft relatively flat to 2021, in a pattern seen across several years.

Numbers on retail crime have been difficult to come by, with confusion around statistics and terminology and a dearth of reliable data. Last year, after a Retail Dive analysis revealed an error in a special NRF crime report, the group retracted a key statistic.

In addition to releasing new statistics on retail crime later this year, the NRF is holding a “Fight Retail Crime Day” later this month, in order to pressure Congressional lawmakers to pass legislation that addresses the issue. Late last year, a member of a U.S. House of Representatives committee that took up the bill urged the group to provide better data. retaildive.com

RELATED: NRF pulls shrink report as it ‘reevaluates’ tools for tracking theft


One Step Forward, Two Steps Back in the Fight Against Theft
Will the Retail Theft Era Ever Come to an End?
Late last year, data from the Council on Criminal Justice revealed that shoplifting and retail theft had increased in some cities while declining in others. In the last few years, cities across the nation have been sharing reports of retail crime in all sorts of shapes and sizes, ranging from flash mobs in broad daylight to organized retail crime rings.

The analysis of incidents in 24 cities over five years showed that New York and Los Angeles experienced the largest rise in reported shoplifting from mid-2019 to mid-2023, whereas St. Petersburg and St. Paul noted significant decreases. During the pandemic’s height, shoplifting incidents dropped by 37%, but the proportion categorized as felonies rose dramatically.

A more recent update from June 2024 from the Council on Criminal Justice shared that the rate of shoplifting during the first half of the year was an average of 24% higher than the first half of 2023 and 10% higher than the first half of 2019.

Major retailers have attributed store closures to rising theft, with companies like Safeway and Walmart citing shoplifting as a reason for operational changes. Despite their efforts, challenges have remained in accurately tracking shoplifting incidents due to self-reporting issues.

Retail theft has even affected self-checkout kiosks and called for regulating self-checkout systems, particularly in California with proposed bill SB 1446 to limit self-checkout stations and certain items to curb theft and protect jobs. In response, companies like Walmart and Target have reassessed their self-checkout strategies, either by limiting use or enhancing security to improve customer service and address theft concerns. retailwire.com


Worst Market for Violent Retail Theft?
Nordstrom CEO says Seattle is worst market for violent retail shoplifting in the US

“I think brazen is the right word, and with that is acts of violence, the amount of shoplifters who are weaponized. It could be a gun, knife, pepper spray a lot of times, but also just using their fists."

King County, Washington is the worst market for retail theft at Nordstrom in the entire US, according to the company’s CEO. Erik Nordstrom told the first King County Public Safety Summit on Organized Retail Crime last week that the retailer's King County stores make up only 3 percent of the department store's global footprint but manage to account for 10 percent of its companywide losses due to theft. There are more than 360 Nordstrom and discount Rack stores.

According to the Puget Sound Business Journal, Nordstrom told law enforcement officers, politicians, and prosecutors at the summit, held on Microsoft's campus in Redmond to bring together the groups to better combat organized retail theft, "We're born and raised here and huge homers when it comes to anything local. Unfortunately, King County is our worst area for this. It's a big financial headwind."

Multiple retailers including Goodwill, Target, Nike, Lululemon, and Starbucks, have cited losses from theft when closing stores in Seattle. Nordstrom added, “I think brazen is the right word, and with that is acts of violence, the amount of shoplifters who are weaponized. It could be a gun, knife, pepper spray a lot of times, but also just using their fists."

He continued, "Having trained security guards, there is more that they can do, but we don't want bullets flying around. If the bad guys are willing to push it past a level that the retailer or the security guard is willing to go, that's tough. It's hard to know what to do with that."

He noted that in some cases, the security guards will apprehend a suspected shoplifter but can only hold the individual for a limited time and if police don't respond in that window, the guards have to release the suspects. thepostmillennial.com

RELATED: Does King County have the most retail theft? Nordstrom believes so


California's Great Debate Over Prop 36

$2M Raised By Franchisees and 7-Eleven, Inc. in Support of Prop 36
7-Eleven owners back Prop 36 with $1 million check following wave of robberies

Prop 36 aims to increase punishments for some theft and drug possession offenses.

7-Eleven owners, city officials and law enforcement rallied together Thursday to support Prop 36, after a string of brazen smash-and-grab robberies.

Prop 36 aims to increase punishments for some theft and drug possession offenses. The 7-Eleven franchise owner whose store hosted the press conference said passing Prop 36 will benefit not only business owners but also citizens.

Over $2 million was raised by Franchisees and 7-Eleven, Inc. in support of the proposition. Franchisees made the most recent donation of $500,000 which was matched by 7-Eleven, Inc to show support to business owners and the communities they serve.

“Today’s event is a testament to the dedication of our Franchisees and the entire 7-Eleven family,” said Randy Quinn, Senior Vice President of Franchise Operations for 7-Eleven, Inc. “We cannot accept a status quo that allows crime to flourish. Together, we are taking a stand.”

In a statement, 7-Eleven wrote they will continue to advocate for a safer environment for the community and business owners throughout California as the November election approaches. nbclosangeles.com


Texas Lawmakers Call Retail Theft a 'Crisis'
Retail theft a ‘growing crisis’ in Texas law enforcement tells lawmakers
Texas lawmakers on Thursday considered new ways to combat retail theft, a growing and often organized, destructive threat facing stores across Texas. Law enforcement experts described the trend as a “crisis,” claiming current laws are inadequate to prosecute and deter the crime.

“The escalation of organized retail crime, organized cargo theft, and attacks on our entire supply chain” are “threatening our economy as a state and the stability of our communities,” Chief Special Agent for BNSF Railway Police Department Will Johnson testified.

Texas codified specific penalties for organized retail theft back in 2007 when the crime cost businesses an estimated $2.5 billion — but since then, the crime has only become more popular. In 2022, Capitol One reported Texas retailers lost $5.9 billion — far more, even after accounting for inflation.

Houston has the third-most retail crime in the nation, behind Los Angeles and San Francisco, the National Retail Federation reported.

Houston state senator Paul Bettencourt said he hopes to add more requirements on local prosecutors and judges, saying some retail criminals deserve tougher penalties.

Law enforcement suggested increasing penalties and lowering the monetary threshold for theft to count as a felony.

Last month, the Texas Comptroller’s office assembled business leaders from companies like Amazon and H-E-B to assemble solutions to the problem. Lawmakers may begin work on new bills targeting the offense when they return for the 89th legislative session in January. newsnationnow.com


Shoplifting Surges 55% in Boston
Data says shoplifting in Boston is way up – and retailers think they know why

Boston saw a 55% increase in shoplifting reports between the first half of 2019 and that same period in 2024.

At the end of September, the Boston Police Department arrested nine suspects on the same day for alleged shoplifting and larceny as part of a Safe Shopping Task Force initiative.

Launched at the beginning of 2024, the initiative — which involves the police, Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, and retail partners — aims to hold shoplifters accountable after hearing about complaints of a rise in shoplifting and larceny in the city.

To what degree shoplifting is an increasingly significant problem for retailers in the city isn’t entirely clear — there are arguments about the accuracy of recent data, due to possible reporting discrepancies and increased tracking efforts. Regardless, it’s something both store owners and employees are definitely concerned about.

And in particular, they point to a change in the so-called “felony threshold” that they say might be further encouraging would-be shoplifters to risk getting caught. boston.com


New ORC Hub Launched
Organized Retail Crime Resource Hub up and running
The Washington Retail Association in partnership with Challenge Seattle and Washington Organized Retail Crime Association announced an online platform called the Organized Retail Crime Resource Hub, according to a WRA Oct. 7 press release.

The platform will be used to combat the increased organized retail theft by providing a centralized source of resources, tools, best practices for retailers, law enforcement and community stakeholders. The ORC Resource Hub will allow people to access training materials, share information across jurisdictions and help organize efforts to prevent, detect and prosecute organized retail theft.

According to the press release from WR the hub will streamline communication and resources which will lead to more efficient crime prevention.

The website is running at OrcreSourceHub.org.


Fighting California's Retail Theft Hot Spots
Specialized CHP task force targets retail theft “hot spots” across California
Since California’s Organized Retail Crime Task Force launched in 2019, they’ve conducted almost 3,000 investigations, arrested more than 3,100 suspects and recovered nearly $46 million in stolen goods.

The state has invested $1.1 billion in such task forces to fight a persistent and growing retail theft crime problem in several “hotspot” cities, including Los Angeles, Oakland and San Francisco.

Spectrum News 1 went on a ride-along with the California Highway Patrol to see how undercover officers work from the ground up to stop large-scale retail theft operations.  spectrumnews1.com


D.A. details Staten Island shoplifting trend, how he’s cracking down

Is a Denver grocery store closing because of concerns over crime?
 

2024 Retail Holiday Predictions
Bah Humbug Predictions: Tis the Season to be Shopping

By Tony D'Onofrio - President, Sensormatic

It is beginning to look a lot like Christmas, everywhere you go. With decorations now appearing in stores as early as August, reminders are everywhere on the continued importance of each holiday shopping season.

Some statistics on the importance of retail, the holiday season, and the impact on the overall USA economy:

• Roughly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is generated by consumer spending.

• Holiday sales in the months of November and December have averaged 19% of total annual retail sales over the last five years.

• In 2023, USA retailers hired between 345,000 to 450,000 holiday seasonal workers.

• 75% of retail small businesses rely heavily on holiday sales to meet their annual revenue goals.

It is time to summarize multiple of my favorite retail holiday forecasts  For 2024, most of these project lower historical retail sales growth, even as the September's job report continued to deliver positive economic surprises.

   Click here to read Tony's full article


Department Stores Continue to Struggle
Another rough year for department stores

The segment is undergoing a quiet shakeup in 2024, with major players pursuing varying degrees of change to their operations.

It’s been another rough year at U.S. department stores so far, at least for those making their financial filings public. Several of them — public and private — have embarked on turnarounds or are contemplating changes that could be a final test of a challenged retail model.

Department stores face many of the same obstacles, including competition from discount players and waning interest from younger generations, but their go-forward plans differ.

Macy’s Inc., after a drastic reduction in its namesake’s footprint a few years ago, plans to shutter another 150 of those stores. The Nordstrom family has bid $3.8 billion to take the company private, as they oversee a major expansion of its Rack off-price business. J.C. Penney is in the midst of a $1 billion overhaul of its merchandising, supply chain, customer experience and other areas, though it’s keeping its fleet largely intact. Kohl’s is taking similar steps while also tightening its budget, prompting its CEO earlier this year to warn that “efforts of this scale take time.” Saks Fifth Avenue owner HBC has agreed to acquire rival Neiman Marcus Group, which includes the namesake retailer and Bergdorf Goodman. That comes after HBC split up its various banners’ e-commerce operations and brick-and-mortar stores, then walked some of that back.

Dillard’s, where the founding family remains in control, is an outlier, focused on merchandising strength and tweaking its footprint, but making no major changes. retaildive.com


Mandatory In-Store Shifts for Home Depot Corporate Employees
Home Depot Asks Corporate Employees To Get Out Of Their Offices And Work 8-Hour Shift In Stores
Home Depot is implementing a new policy aimed at bridging the gap between corporate and retail operations. Starting in the fourth quarter of 2024, all corporate employees, including senior management and remote workers, will be required to complete an eight-hour shift at one of the company's retail stores every quarter, Bloomberg reported, citing an internal memo from Home Depot CEO Ted Decker.

This decision aims to bridge the gap between the corporate office and the retail floor. The intention is to ensure that all employees, regardless of their position, understand the challenges and daily operations faced by store workers, thereby fostering empathy, better decision-making and a more cohesive company culture.

“We need to stay connected to the core of our business, so we can truly understand the challenges and opportunities our store associates face every day,” Decker said in the note to staff.

Home Depot, one of the largest retailers in the United States with over $150 billion in annual revenue and 450,000 employees, is reviving this practice after it was suspended during the pandemic due to safety concerns. forbes.com


The Great Automation Battle
The Battle Over Robots at U.S. Ports Is On

Striking dockworkers are back to work—but disagreement over automation​ stands in the way of lasting peace

Tens of thousands of dockworkers last week returned to their jobs on East Coast ports after a three-day strike that threatened to snarl trade and hobble the economy. Workers won a 62% pay increase. But a much larger, thornier issue remains—one that’s playing out in other businesses as well, from factories to grocery stores to Hollywood: How much, and how quickly, are humans willing to concede to machines?

The new dockworker agreement extends only until mid-January. Daggett’s opposition to automation of any kind threatens to derail the continuing negotiations over the next three months and push the dockworkers back to the picket lines.

The long march of technological advancement has transformed manufacturing and countless industries over the decades—and brought attempts to defy change. Workers in a range of industries today fear being displaced by ever-more sophisticated machines, particularly with the rapid rise of artificial intelligence. wsj.com


Spirit Halloween to open 10 new ‘Spirit Christmas’ stores catering to holiday shoppers

Iconic outdoor retailer Orvis will lay off 8% of workforce, close stores

Top 10 OSHA Violations of 2024