Retail Stats & Projections
Keep on Rockin'​ in the Retail World (*)

Global Retail Sales, E-Commerce, Physical Stores Trends, Challenges and Headwinds

By Tony D'Onofrio, Global Retail Influencer & Prosegur's CEO & Managing Director, Global Retail Business Unit

As this rockin' picture reminded me, the retail industry, even with its current negative challenging forces, remains very vibrant. 2021 confirmed that we are all resilient consumers who will continue to shop our favorite brands. In May 2021, E-marketer forecasted that retail sales globally would rise 6% to just over $25 trillion, which was a significant comeback from 2020. By the end of year, 2021 global retail sales actually grew 9.7% reaching total spending of just over $26 trillion.

2021 in-store sales grew a healthy 8.2% globally to just over $21 trillion which was more than was spent in 2019. “Pent-up demand from in-person shoppers accelerated the recovery by two full years.”

When this E-marketer research was published in January 2022, brick-and-mortar sales were projected to grow 2.6% to 3.4% for the remainder of the forecast out to 2025. More spending is expected in physical retail than ecommerce in 2022 ($702 billion versus $604 billion), despite its slower growth rate.

This article and this picture from a recent NRF trade event in Cleveland (Home of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame) are a reminder that retail does indeed rock. It includes some of my favorite statistics on the industry and some projections on where we go from here.

Read the full article here
 

The Nationwide ORC Battle

Stores Beg for Help Amid ORC Surge
Organized shoplifting ring wreaks havoc in Brooklyn Heights, merchants say

Stores owners are blaming bail reform for a surge in organized theft and saying stores will close if action isn't taken

Local store owners say the main reason is that shoplifting is rampant, and easily resold items like these are targeted by professional thieves. These thieves, also known as "boosters," are employed in an underground economy that is feeding off legitimate businesses.

Between crime on the subway and the brazen shoplifters, some employees are afraid to come to work, Arguello said. "My staff is a hard working class; they should never be exposed to danger at the work site."

He worries that residents of Brooklyn Heights are not aware of what's happening to their local businesses, and that if nothing is done, stores could close. "We employ over 65 people in the store," he said. "That's 65 families. Many of them have worked here for years."

Arguello believes that bail reform has allowed career criminals to commit multiple thefts while their cases wind through the system. "It really upsets me that the people in my store were heroes for two years during COVID and this is how the city of New York is paying us back," he said.

Shoppers can't find their favorite products

An employee at the CVS confirmed that the store has had to lock up everyday items. Shoplifting has skyrocketed," said the employee, who asked to not be named because of corporate policy. "We used to know who the shoplifters were. Now there are lots of new faces." The employee estimated that the store was losing "a couple of thousand per day, if we factor in what we're not aware of."

The employee believes that theft was the "prime reason" a nearby CVS at 168 Montage Street closed. "And they had the same problem at Rite Aid [also closed, at 101 Clinton St.]. They were open 24 hours, and they had theft 24/7."

"Having a security guard doesn't help," he said. Even if the thieves are arrested, "They casually let them out the same day with a slap on the wrist." brooklyneagle.com

10 States Have ORC Task Forces
Seattle Times Op-Ed: Combat organized retail theft in WA with coordinated, sustained effort
Washington state Attorney General Bob Ferguson is creating a statewide Organized Retail Crime Theft Task Force. It remains to be seen whether it will make progress or become just one more committee that holds meetings, makes recommendations and accomplishes little. At least there’s some cause for hope this time.

It was probably only a matter of time before Democratic leaders did something about crime. If Seattle voters’ electing a tough-on-crime Republican to be city attorney didn’t spook them, the successful recall election of nationally prominent progressive prosecutor in San Francisco likely did.

Store owners are fed up, and shoppers are wary of heading into places where crime seems most concentrated, like downtown Seattle. Criminal groups prey on desperate people, recruiting them to steal from stores. Thieves hand the stolen goods over for drugs or money, and the organized groups sell the goods online.

In February, the King County Prosecutor’s Office and the Seattle city attorney announced that they would partner to take on organized retail theft. New City Attorney Ann Davison also announced plans to expedite cases and prosecute more misdemeanor thefts, though she has run into resistance from progressive advocates.

Combating ORC will require a coordinated approach that brings together local, state and federal stakeholders. The task force therefore will include prosecutors, Washington’s two U.S. attorneys, retailers, the FBI and local law enforcement. Nine other states have a task force dedicated to organized retail crime.

The public and retailers will expect results. Organized criminal groups have honed their tactics for years. Stopping them will take more than quarterly meetings. Washington can curtail the criminal networks, but it will take a sustained effort from law enforcement and Ferguson’s office. seattletimes.com

Los Angeles DA Could Be Recalled Over Crime Surge
Group aims to harness anger over crime to oust LA prosecutor
Los Angeles County’s progressive prosecutor could be tossed from office like his counterpart in San Francisco after opponents on Wednesday said they submitted more than enough petition signatures to qualify for an election to recall District Attorney George Gascón, who they say is soft on crime.

If certified, the election would be the latest in a string of recalls in California that have mostly targeted progressives in a state known for its liberal streak. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom was one of the few survivors, winning by a large margin in September.

Last month, San Francisco voters frustrated with a rash of property crimes, including brazen shoplifting caught on video and attacks against Asian American people, drove District Attorney Chesa Boudin, a former public defender, from office. The vote came after a special election that ousted three San Francisco school board members in February.

Gascón, a former San Francisco police chief who then became DA in that city, won office in Los Angeles in November 2020 as part of a wave of progressive prosecutors elected nationwide.

But Gascón immediately ran into problems running the nation’s largest local prosecutor’s office when he told deputies they shouldn’t seek longer prison sentences for repeat felons and those carrying guns, among many other changes that were seen as soft on crime. wtop.com

Washington law enforcement agencies working together to combat retail theft


America's Mass Shooting Epidemic

300+ Mass Shootings in America This Year
There have been over 300 mass shootings so far in 2022
There have already been more than 300 mass shootings this year in the United States, according to the Gun Violence Archive.

The shooting at a Forth of July parade in Highland Park, Ill. that left six people dead and dozens injured was one of fourteen mass shootings over the long weekend. There have been just over 100 since a rampage at an elementary school in Uvalde, Tex., left 19 children and two teachers dead on May 24.

Mass shootings, where four or more people — not including the shooter — are injured or killed, have averaged more than one per day so far this year. Not a single week in 2022 has passed without at least four mass shootings.

Mass shootings have been on the rise in recent years. In 2021, almost 700 such incidents occurred, a jump from the 611 in 2020 and 417 in 2019. Before that, incidents had not topped 400 annually since the Gun Violence Archive started tracking in 2014.

This year is on pace with last year’s high when comparing the same time period. The toll is immense. Mass shootings have killed 343 people and injured 1,391 more through July 4th. washingtonpost.com

Mass Shootings Are Surging - No Matter What Data You Analyze
What You Need to Know About the Rise in U.S. Mass Shootings

A high-profile mass shooting at a Chicago suburb’s July 4 parade was the nation’s fourth in recent weeks.

If it feels like mass shootings have become more frequent, that intuition is correct, according to data analysis by The Marshall Project.

Under one of the most conservative definitions of “mass shootings,” in which a gunman slaughters four or more strangers in a public place, the number of these crimes has indeed been climbing in the last few years — and they have higher death tolls, as well. The last five years have seen more mass shootings than any other comparable time span dating back to 1966.

As mass shootings in the U.S. reached a record high, so did the number of deaths and injuries. From 2017 to 2021, perpetrators killed 299 people — about a third more than the 221 fatalities in the five-year period that ended in 2016.

The Gun Violence Archive, an independent research group, uses a broad definition of a mass shooting: an incident in which four or more people are killed or injured, not including the shooter. The group counted 2,403 mass shootings from 2017 to 2021, with 2,495 dead and 10,225 injured. The group’s data reveals a steep rise in recent years: 692 mass shootings in 2021, up 66% from 2019’s total of 417.

The group tallied 318 mass shootings as of 3 p.m. on July 5. That puts 2022 on track to finish as one of the deadliest years since the group began monitoring these crimes in 2014.

The FBI tracks what it calls “active shooters”: one or more individuals actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area. Those cases have almost doubled since 2017, to 61 incidents in 2021 that left 103 people dead and injured 140 others. themarshallproject.org

Amazon Mass Shooting Plot Thwarted
Rodolfo Aceves, 19, arrested for plotting mass shooting at Amazon warehouse
Rodolfo Aceves, 19, was arrested for allegedly threatening to carry out a mass shooting at the Amazon warehouse in San Antonio where he worked.

Aceves was taken into custody on June 27, according to a press release from the police. He faces a charge of terroristic threat causing fear, which is a third-degree felony punishable by up to 10 years in state prison.

Investigators said several of his co-workers told them he was planning on shooting up the delivery station in the 8200 block of Sous Vide Way. Detectives were notified and said they acquired credible information to believe Aceves' comments were a legitimate threat.

"This case highlights the importance of community collaboration and appropriate responses. This is the essence of 'see something, say something.' If not for the witness who came forward, this incident could have resulted in a tragic outcome."

Additional information to support the threat was developed during the investigation by homicide detectives and they got an arrest warrant. After Aceves was arrested, detectives said they seized an AR-15 from where he was found. cbsnews.com

Buffalo Tops Store Completely Transformed
Transforming Buffalo Tops Market after Mass Shooting Attack

Extensive renovations continue at the Jefferson Avenue Tops in Buffalo where ten people were murdered in a mass shooting in May.

“Just about everything in the store is new,” Mayor Brown Brown stated. “The store looks completely different inside. It does not look like the same store on the interior.”

But Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown says the store has been completely transformed into a new look and does not look like the former store. The mayor says it was the very first time he was inside the store since the mass shooting on May 14th.

The mayor says he realizes some people may never return to this store but believes Tops is doing everything right so far. The store is scheduled to reopen at the end of July. wkbw.com

Op-Ed: Highland Park shooting just part of America's gun violence problem

Editorial: Mass shootings are America’s parade of horribles

US: 89.9M Cases - 1M Dead - 85.5M Recovered
Worldwide: 557.7M Cases - 6.3M Dead - 531.6M Recovered

Former Senior Loss Prevention Executive
Know of any fallen LP exec? Let's remember & recognize.

Private Industry Security Guard Deaths: 360  
Law Enforcement Officer Deaths: 787
*Red indicates change in total deaths

Summer COVID Surge
New York City’s COVID positivity rate tops 14% as summer wave arrives
It just won’t leave us alone. As New York enters its third pandemic summer, the city has been caught in another COVID-19 wave, with an explosively contagious omicron strain pushing test positivity rates to steep heights.

On Wednesday, the weeklong positivity rate across the five boroughs had reached 14% and eclipsed 20% in parts of Staten Island, southern Brooklyn, Queens, upper Manhattan and the eastern Bronx, according to city data.

Death rates remain low, limited by widespread vaccination, but the latest heinous, hyper-mutated subvariant to vex the globe, BA.5, appears to have sent hospital admissions rates upward in other countries. yahoo.com

The Post-COVID Shift
Three keys to a resilient postpandemic recovery

The path to sustainable, inclusive growth lies in building resilience now.

The global economy has demonstrated significant resilience through the COVID-19 pandemic, bouncing back faster than expected. Economic momentum remains strong, but nations and organizations are encountering cross-currents in supply chains, workforce availability, and inflation. The pandemic response comes in the context of a worsening climate crisis and rising economic inequality. These compound challenges remind us that crises can become watersheds of policy and strategy.

Indeed, the foundations of future growth are often laid as societies respond to the weaknesses crises expose. At this juncture, our recovery’s success is still not assured. History shows that in times of disruption, resilience depends on adaptability and decisiveness. Once the most acute period of the pandemic subsides, a resilience agenda will become the key to future prosperity.

To build a better future, the emphasis must now shift from defensive measures and short-term goals to a sustainable, inclusive growth agenda. Growth is a precursor to economic development. A sustainable inclusive growth agenda will focus on growth that supports the health and repair of the natural environment while improving the livelihood of wider population segments. We need to find pathways to a genuinely better society, so that our actions make our planet and our economies more resilient and secure. mckinsey.com

New FDA Policy Impacts Pharmacies
US allows pharmacists to prescribe Pfizer's COVID-19 pill

U.S. pharmacists can now prescribe the leading COVID-19 pill directly to patients

Pharmacists can prescribe the leading COVID-19 pill directly to patients under a new U.S. policy announced Wednesday that's intended to expand use of Pfizer's drug Paxlovid.

The Food and Drug Administration said pharmacists can begin screening patients to see if they are eligible for Paxlovid and then prescribe the medication, which has been shown to curb the worst effects of COVID-19. Previously only physicians could prescribe the antiviral drug.

The announcement comes as COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths are rising again, though they remain near their lowest levels since the coronavirus outbreak began in 2020. abcnews.go.com

Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths Avoided
Vaccinations Cut U.S. COVID Deaths by 58%: Study
The U.S. COVID vaccination program slashed the COVID death rate by as much as 58%, saving hundreds of thousands of lives during the first two waves of the pandemic, a study says.

Norwegian Cruise Line to End Its Covid-Testing Requirement

BA.5 may pose the biggest threat to immune protection yet