Is There Really a Shoplifting Tsunami?
(Mis)measuring the Shoplifting Crisis

Is there a wave of retail theft? Data tell a more complicated story than the headlines.

For the past 18 months, America has allegedly faced a shoplifting tsunami. Much of the evidence for the shoplifting surge comes from scary but rare anecdotes, backed up by industry statistics based on private data that the public can’t double check.

What’s the truth of the matter? In short, there are holes in both sides’ stories. A closer look at the numbers suggests shoplifting fell in 2020, though it may have risen in 2021. The bigger picture, however, shows a much deeper problem: America isn’t experiencing a short-term surge in shoplifting, but a long-run wave, one that has been growing in big cities for over a decade. Addressing that issue should be a top priority for city leaders, who need to keep shopkeepers and residents on their side or risk municipal catastrophe.

What’s Wrong with Current Coverage

Video of someone stealing thousands of dollars of merchandise in one go is shocking. But how do we know it is representative of a bigger problem?

The problem is that we have no way of independently assessing their validity: summary statistics, devoid of context, just don’t tell us much, especially when presented by interested parties. Firms like CVS and Walgreens could release “shrinkage” data—precise information on how much inventory each store loses to different sources, including shoplifting—but they don’t. That not only makes their claims hard to judge, but should cause us to trust them less.

What the Data Show

While most coverage of the shoplifting wave has looked at trends in larceny or burglary more generally, police departments break down information about property offenses, allowing a count of shoplifting offenses. Those data show that in cities that today with more than 500,000 people, the per capita rate of shoplifting offenses peaked at 562 per 100,000 in 1990. It then fell nearly 60 percent to a low of 225 in 2006. But as of 2019, just before the pandemic, it had risen to 379 per 100,000, a 50 percent increase. A similar, albeit less dramatic, pattern obtained in smaller cities.

Why?

There are popular explanations for the recent surge. In San Francisco, one is Proposition 47, the ballot initiative that raised from $450 to $950 the threshold amount after which a theft qualifies as a felony. On the one hand, shoplifting in the city—and in California, in the FBI data, for a year—did spike after the initiative was passed in 2014. On the other, an analysis from the Pew research center found that similar changes to the “felony theft threshold” in other states consistently yielded no change in the larceny theft rate.  Policy in San Francisco also doesn’t explain the nationwide increase in urban shoplifting.

Cause, though, is less important than policy response. If the big city shoplifting rate is up 50 percent since its pre-Great Recession low, that should be a call to action for city executives. The dramatic decline in shoplifting, and most criminal offending, since the early 1990s is one of the great civic triumphs of our era. Mayors should be willing to commit law enforcement to swift and certain consequences for serious, big-ticket, or serial shoplifting offenses—if the SFPD isn’t clearing shoplifting complaints, it’s on London Breed to fix the problem. A failure to do otherwise degrades the quality of life in their city, hurting shopkeepers and residents and threatening America’s urban renaissance. thedispatch.com

Progressive LA County DA Could Be Taken Down By Crime Surge
Package thefts and other high-profile crimes threaten to derail the reform-minded Los Angeles County DA
A rash of package thefts from freight trains passing slowly through downtown Los Angeles has raised a fundamental question facing this city and others: how to balance attempts at criminal justice reform with the need for crime prevention.

"What the hell is going on?" asked an exasperated Gov. Gavin Newsom last week when he joined an effort to clear the cargo detritus from the train tracks.

Railroad behemoth Union Pacific, in large part, blames the thefts on Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón, a progressive who took office 13 months ago on promises to enact a "more humane" criminal justice system. The company has claimed that despite over 100 arrests, "UP has not been contacted for any court proceedings."

Gascón, however, calls that "misleading," telling CNN, "They did not send 100 cases to us."

Union Pacific points to a controversial order issued in December 2020 by the DA to his staff not to prosecute many misdemeanors including most cases of trespassing. A company executive about a month ago wrote to Gascón, "UP and our goods movement partners strongly urge you to reconsider the policies detailed in Special Directive 20-07."

But Gascón isn't backing down from the mandate -- or from other initiatives that have drawn fierce opposition from within his own ranks, as well as from the community he serves, where organizers are now driving a second attempt to throw him out of office.

Flanked recently by other progressive district attorneys from around the country as he marked his first year in office, Gascón doubled down: "We have set a path for ourselves to turn around the criminal legal system in this country," he said.

Gascón is also now taking some heat for a spate of smash-and-grab robberies in Los Angeles and beyond before Christmas. "He has created this environment where there's no accountability," Siddall said. "Criminals are arrested, and within 24 hours they're back on the street committing crime." cnn.com

Controversial Crime-Tracking App
Crime tracking app Citizen acquires Harbor, a disaster prep app
In the 60 U.S. cities where it operates, Citizen says it delivers over 20 million alerts, sourced from public 911 blotters and verified by staff, each day. Users used to be able to report incidents directly to Citizen, but now its website encourages them to call 911 instead.

Harbor, which raised a $5 million seed round about a year and a half ago, gamifies the process of preparing for crises like fires and earthquakes. The app, which launched in October 2020, asks users to enter their zip code. Then, they’re told what disasters are most likely to befall them (which sounds a little terrifying).

“I couldn’t be happier for our team to join Citizen and its mission to make your world a safer place,” said Dan Kessler, the CEO of harbor, who will join Citizen as Chief Business Officer. “There’s so much we will do together to continue building our new technology category around mobile safety.”

This acquisition could help Citizen give users ways to stay safe that don’t involve anxiety-inducing alerts about nearby incidents. Citizen also recently launched Protect, a $20/month service that lets users contact a Citizen agent if they feel unsafe, but don’t want to call 911.

Now with 10 million users, Citizen has been embroiled in various controversies over the years. Starting in 2016, the app — previously called Vigilante — was removed from the App Store for encouraging activities that could lead to risk or physical harm (this iteration of the app suggested that average people should approach the problem of crime “as a group,” the company wrote at launch).

The app has also come under fire for offering to pay users $30,000 for information about a suspected arsonist who turned out to be innocent, as well as trying to deploy private security workers to examine the scene of reported crimes. techcrunch.com

Store Associates Call for More Security Amid NYC Theft Surge
Retail workers feel powerless over shoplifting surge exposed by celebrity video
Workers at Upper East Side drug and grocery stores said Wednesday that brazen shoplifters target their stores every day – and they are powerless to stop it. The employees spoke to the Post a day after actor and comedian Michael Rapaport filmed an alleged crook casually strolling out of a Rite Aid at 80th Street and Second Avenue with his loot.

“It happens everywhere around here,” said Herman Diaz, an assistant manager at the nearby Morton Williams supermarket on First Avenue and East 81st Street. “They come here, 2 or 3 [shoplifting incidents per day] for meat and beer and Red Bull.”

Diaz said he started to see such incidents happening last year. “Every store is losing money because of this,” the assistant manager said. “I’ve never seen that before. It’s brazen.”

He said police need to be given “more power” in order to stop the thefts. An employee at CVS on First Avenue and 82nd Street said “there are way more [shoplifters] now.”

She blamed the uptick on pandemic-fueled unemployment, and said thieves are emboldened because workers aren’t allowed to stop them. “We can’t even touch them,” said the employee, before she was ushered away by her co-workers. “We don’t have security here. We should have security. It happens every day.” nypost.com

Providence Convenience Stores Are Being Targeted for Robberies

US: 74.6M Cases - 902.1K Dead - 45.6M Recovered
Worldwide: 367.3M Cases - 5.6M Dead - 290.5M Recovered

Former Senior Loss Prevention Executive
Know of any fallen LP exec? Let's remember & recognize.

Private Industry Security Guard Deaths: 344  
Law Enforcement Officer Deaths: 623
*Red indicates change in total deaths

'Encouraging Signs' as COVID Cases Plummet
Omicron loosens its grip, but the pandemic hasn’t ended
After a frenetic few weeks when the Omicron variant of the coronavirus seemed to infect everyone, including the vaccinated and boosted, the United States is seeing encouraging signs.

As cases decline in some parts of the country, many have begun to hope that this surge is the last big wave of the virus — that because of its unique characteristics, the Omicron variant will usher Americans out of the pandemic.

What’s driving the optimism? The idea is that so many people are gaining immunity through vaccination or infection with Omicron that soon the coronavirus will be unable to find a foothold in our communities, and will disappear from our lives.

“Things are looking good,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the Biden administration’s top adviser on the pandemic, said on Sunday. “We don’t want to get overconfident, but they look like they’re going in the right direction right now.”

But in interviews with more than a dozen epidemiologists, immunologists and evolutionary biologists, the course of the virus in the United States appeared more complicated — and a bit less rosy. The path to normalcy may be short and direct, the goal just weeks away, and horrific surges may become a thing of the past. Or it may be long and bumpy, pockmarked with outbreaks. nytimes.com

Retail Workers Showing Up with COVID
‘Just wear a mask and don’t tell anyone’: Workplaces are filling up with sick employees
Maria Bernal, an employee at a Jack in the Box in Folsom, Calif., couldn’t read the orders popping up on her screen. Her vision was blurry, her hands shook from chills and her head felt heavy.

A pharmacist told her she probably had COVID-19. When she told her boss, the manager told Bernal to keep working.

As the Omicron variant knocked out swaths of the labor force, people in a variety of jobs — fast-food workers, grocery clerks, teachers — say they have been under immense pressure to report to work while feeling sick or having tested positive with the virus.

“A lot of workers feel pressure to come in — a supervisor is leaning on them, saying, ‘I really need you today,’” said Kristen Harknett, a professor of social behavioral sciences at UC San Francisco who has polled service sector workers during the pandemic.

Two-thirds of service workers surveyed in the months leading up to the Omicron surge said they did not stay home when they were feeling sick and went to work ill. The numbers highlight the precarious situation for workers without sick leave, Harknett said. They also show the pressure of chronic short staffing, threats from bosses and the possibility of losing pay that also causes people to keep going to work, she said.

Ill workers are serving meals, taking orders and talking to co-workers and customers through cloth or surgical masks that offer less protection and raise the risks for all. latimes.com

Federal Retail Pharmacy Program
Walgreens, CVS Begin Offering Free N95 Masks, With More on the Way

Masks will be distributed at health centers and pharmacies enrolled in the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program

Walgreens and CVS are starting to distribute free N95 masks from the government to area residents Thursday and Friday, while other Illinois stores and pharmacies have already begun. According to CVS Health, some locations expect to receive mask shipments Thursday, with more arriving on a rolling basis as supplies become available.

"Inventory is expected to begin to arrive at these locations as early as Thursday, January 27 and will continue arriving on a rolling basis as additional supply becomes available," the company told NBC 5 in a statement. "Masks are limited to three per person, while supplies last, and signs will be posted to indicate N95 mask availability."

A Walgreens spokesperson said in a statement that first stores will begin offering free N95 masks starting Friday. Like CVS and other pharmacies, Walgreens noted that participating locations will show signage indicating mask availability.

Meijer began handing out free N95 masks to shoppers Monday, becoming one of the first major retail chains to do so as part of a Biden administration initiative. Des-Moines based Hy-Vee, which operates more than a dozen stores in Illinois, said the majority of its locations in the state have received shipments of N95 masks and started distribution. nbcchicago.com

Anti-Vaxxers Harass Restaurant Employees & Customers
A Bunch of Anti-Vaccine Protesters Clashed With DC Restaurant Workers

At multiple businesses, protesters harassed employees, heckled patrons, and refused to leave.

A group of anti-vaxxers walk into a bar, and clashes ensue. That was the punchline in DC a few days ago, as anti-vaccine protesters descended on the National Mall for Sunday’s “Defeat the Mandates” rally.

The District’s vaccine mandate for bars, restaurants, and other indoor venues went into effect on January 15. It requires patrons age 12 and over to show proof of at least one dose of the Covid vaccine.

At Union Pub, right-wing monitoring organization Patriot Takes shared a video of anti-vaccine protesters doing an alleged “MLK-style sit-in” at the Capitol Hill bar. In the footage, a small group of unmasked protesters heckle patrons and a doorman, calling him a “fascist Nazi” as nearby patrons rush to put on their masks.

Employees at Old Ebbitt Grill by the National Mall were forced to call DC police for assistance after two women entered, refused to wear masks or show proof of vaccination, and declined to leave after being repeatedly asked. washingtonian.com

COVID work rules: A guide for California workers
As omicron ripples across California, workers are learning they’ve been exposed and coming down with symptoms. What happens next? There are rules employers and workers are supposed to follow to keep workplaces safe and limit the spread of the virus.

Most California workers who are working in person are covered by emergency temporary rules from the Division of Occupational Safety and Health, better known as Cal/OSHA. A subsection of workers, including some in health facilities, correctional facilities, homeless shelters, and drug treatment centers, are protected by different workplace rules.

See all the workplace rules here: mercurynews.com

As COVID-19 cases fall, San Francisco leads way in easing mask rule
Small, vaccinated groups can again forgo masks Feb. 1

Ohio sees ‘light at end of the tunnel’ amid 25% decrease in COVID hospitalizations

COVID drags down UK retail sales for January

Stellantis pulls COVID-19 vaccine mandate for salaried workers

Dark Stores - Retail's Future?
New Retail Technology Lights the Way for the Rise of Dark Stores
The growth of e-commerce combined with the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a permanent shift in consumer shopping behavior, leading to a rapid increase in online shopping that is unlikely to reverse. As a result, a new player has emerged, particularly in grocery shopping and traditional retail: dark stores.

Dark stores are springing up everywhere to meet the new consumer needs. This flexible business model caters to customers who prefer to shop from the comfort of their homes.

It Poses a Challenge for Retailers - With some dark stores promising to deliver goods in as quick as 10 minutes, retailers have to figure out how to make this channel profitable and prevent losses that can stem from poorly designed business operations. Dark stores need to operate efficiently to meet the demand for fast delivery and real-time inventory.

Easy Task Management - Dark stores don't serve customers inside the warehouse, but plenty of work still needs to be done on the floor. Management can simplify task allocation and monitoring through a cloud-based solution. Using an app, supervisors can input important tasks and assign them to the right person.

Convenient Communication - Unlike traditional retail or e-commerce, dark store operations don't simply involve a store or a warehouse. So aside from pickers going around the floor preparing orders, expect to have employees on the road for curbside pick-up and home delivery. A one-stop mobile-based solution with video call functionality removes the hassle of looking for a phone number—especially in an emergency.

Outstanding Operations Optimization - Since new retail tech runs on the cloud, the central office can track dark store operations and spot problematic areas. Through auditing and smart analytics, retailers can identify specific challenges and issues they are seeing at each location, adopt newer and better processes, and ensure employees clearly understand them.

Accessible Remote Monitoring - Efficient Performance Standardization - Retail Management Solution Designed for Dark Stores risnews.com

Lowe's Evolution Into 'One-Stop Shop'
Lowe's will open Petco shops inside some stores, as it looks beyond appliances and paint

The addition of pet merchandise is part of Lowe’s strategy to become a one-stop shop for everything homeowners may need

Lowe’s will soon test a new offering: A Petco shop inside its stores where customers can buy dog food and cat litter, and even visit with a vet, while shopping for paint and other supplies for home projects.

The two retailers announced a deal Thursday to pilot the store-in-store locations. The first one will open near San Antonio in early February, with 14 additional locations planned in Texas, North Carolina and South Carolina by the end of March.

Lowe’s and Petco have been pandemic beneficiaries, as Americans took on do-it-yourself projects and adopted pets while spending more time at home. In the coming months, however, the retailers could face a more challenging backdrop if consumers feel squeezed by rising inflation or decide to spend a larger chunk of the budget on vacations and nights out instead of pet accessories and home projects.

The store-in-store will vary in size, but the first location will be about 1,000 square feet and will be placed at the front of the store, said Bill Boltz, Lowe’s executive vice president of merchandising. cnbc.com

How McDonald's Beat the Labor Shortage
McDonald's expanded its workforce in 2021, offering better wages and benefits to beat the labor shortage

The total number of staff on McDonald's roster grew during 2021 despite the wider labor shortage.

Fast-food giant McDonald's revealed Thursday that improved employment packages enabled the company to expand its payroll last year despite the tight labor market.

McDonald's finished 2021 with more staff than it had at the start of the year, CEO Chris Kempczinski said on an earnings call Thursday. He attributed the increased staffing levels to higher wages and better benefits. Nearly all its US restaurants are now back to normal opening hours, he added.

A post-lockdown labor shortage devastated much of the restaurant industry in 2021, as record numbers of Americans quit their jobs in search of better wages, benefits, and working conditions. Others returned to education, switched industries, or took early retirement. Many businesses were forced to offer better conditions to staff in order to keep operating.

Some McDonald's franchise owners took more unusual measures to tackle labor shortfalls in 2021, with one calling on 14-year-olds to apply for jobs, another offering iPhones to new hires, and another handing out $50 to anyone who came for an interview. businessinsider.com

Heavy Snow, Hurricane-Strength Winds, Floods & Outages
A nor'easter threatens 75 Million from the Southeast to New England
The path of a weekend nor'easter is becoming clearer as 75 million people from the Southeast to New England may face dangerous heavy snow and winds approaching hurricane intensity with the potential to knock out power, flood coastal areas and severely impair travel, forecasts show.

The storm is due to form Friday off the coast of the Carolinas and rapidly strengthen as it moves north up the East Coast overnight into Saturday.

Blizzard warnings Friday cover 4 million people in coastal areas from Maine to Massachusetts and from New Jersey to Maryland. Whiteout conditions will make travel difficult to impossible, the National Weather Service predicts. At risk of blowing snow due to high winds are Portland, Maine; Boston; Atlantic City, New Jersey; and Ocean City, Maryland. cnn.com

Retail-Driven Recession Coming?
Retail expert warns recession just ‘around the corner'

Returns, inflation could lead to a recession, Burt Flickinger said

During an interview on "Mornings with Maria" retail expert Burt Flickinger explained how the increase of items returned at retail stores combined with inflation could potentially lead to a recession in the near future.

BURT FLICKINGER: It is troubling, Maria, because to your point, you've go to 16.6% this year versus the 10.6, the reference the cost of every return is $33 on a $50 item, the profit out of $50 items, only $1. So the retailers are losing a fortune. So that means higher prices and lower standards of living for consumers. And that with the McDonald's news, today is a harbinger of the recession coming more quickly around the corner. foxbusiness.com

U.S. Labor Costs Grew at Fastest Pace in Two Decades
Employers spent 4% more on compensation last year amid tight labor market

A key inflation measure rose the fastest since 1982
A key measure of inflation rose 5.8% between December 2020 and December 2021, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. It was the biggest advance since 1982.

Walmart unveils new, upgraded store design

H&M looks beyond pandemic with drive to double sales by 2030

Buzzy beauty brand Glossier just laid off more than 80 employees